Typhoon Mawar Approaching Guam

Mawar is now a super typhoon, as designated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, just southeast of Guam and is tracking toward the north-northwest. The north-northwest track is expected to continue into Wednesday, local time, with some additional strengthening possible. Mawar could reach a Category 5 equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by the time it passes over Guam on Wednesday, local time.   

Rainfall will increase in intensity with strengthening winds Tuesday night, local time, as Mawar continues to head toward Guam with the worse conditions expected on Wednesday. Heavy rain will continue to Guam and the Mariana Islands through Wednesday night, local time, with rainfall amounts of 8-15 inches (200-380 mm) expected with the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 24 inches (610 mm). Rainfall of this magnitude can result in flash flooding and mudslides, blocking roads and delaying travel. The strengthening storm is expected to produce wind gusts to 180 mph (290 km/h) with the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 200 mph (320 km/h) across portions of Guam and the Northern Marina Islands on Wednesday, local time, which can result in damage and power outages. Rough surf and coastal flooding are also expected across the archipelago. Because of the wind and rain, Mawar is a 4 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Tropical Cyclones.

Beyond the middle of the week, Mawar may take a more west-northwest track and approach Taiwan or the southern Ryukyu Islands of Japan early next week. An eventual turn to the northeast is expected early next week but differ on the timing of this turn. There is a chance for rain and wind over the southern Ryukyu Islands early next week, but if the turn to the northeast is slower then rains could reach as far west as Taiwan. Impacts on southern Japan cannot be ruled out late next week, depending on the exact track of the storm.

No additional development is expected well into next week, but there is the potential for a tropical system to form in the Philippine Sea or South China Sea in early June.