Drought developing across parts of Europe

Much of June into the first few days of July has been extremely dry across many parts of northern Europe into eastern Europe.

This is the region that has been dominated by high pressure systems. The general weather pattern has been roughly the same over the last several weeks over this area, which in turn yielded to a stormy period across northern Spain into the Balkans. This prolonged dry period has pluses and minuses. Those minuses have started to rear their ugly heads.

One of those minuses is a drop in the water level of rivers. For example, the River Flow from the Environment Agency for England from June 27^th to June 3^rd, shows that many rivers are running below their normal water levels, especially across northern England into the Midlands.

Looking at the weather for the last several weeks, it should come to no surprise to us that many rivers are below their normal water levels. Anything that is highlighted in red is essentially rainfall less than 5 mm (0.20 of an inch). Starting with May 30^th and running to July 3^rd, it has generally been drying for much of England, with the exception of a few areas across western and northern England that over the 35-day stretch had between 13 and 25 mm (0.50-1 inch) of rain, which for many is less than 50 percent of what they are supposed to have during this span.

Looking at the bigger picture, much of the British Isles into northern Germany and Denmark have received between 1 to 2 mm less per day of their normal-precipitation amount. It grows worse across Eastern Europe where many locations ran 1.5 to 3.5 less per day. What this tells us is that both these areas are running around to less than 50 percent of their normal rainfall for this period. This in turn has a big affect on the growing season. The growing season had a rough start with the lingering effects of winter continuing into April which essentially delayed it, now you add on top of it a lack of precipitation for about a month. When you add a lack of precipitation to the growing season, the results are typically smaller harvest and possible rationing of crops. The question becomes, how long will this dry period last?

Over the next seven days, the GFS ensembles hint that some relief will come to eastern Europe, especially across Poland into northern Ukraine into the Baltic States. Mainly this will come from a very slow-moving closed upper-level low. Areas that have seen normal to above-normal precipitation amounts from the past month (northern Spain into the Balkans) will continue to have scattered storms. I do believe that the GFS ensembles are over playing the precipitation amounts across the British Isles into western Germany. Western Germany will have much of their precipitation from the slow-moving closed upper-level low over the next 72 hours, then will dry out, the rest of the area will generally receive isolated storms, which will be mainly across Wales, and Ireland into Scotland. The isolated storms do not bode well for ending a prolonged dry period. So, for another week the dry conditions are likely to continue across the British Isles, and France into western Germany. Another area that will continue to have below-normal precipitation is across southern and southeastern Ukraine.

If we go another week out, through Sunday, July 22^nd, a couple of things stick out to me. One is the corridor of storms continuing across northern Spain into the Alps, northern Italy and the Balkans, and how wet from Poland into northern Ukraine into the Baltics the ensembles are forecasting. This in turn will help with drought relief across much of Ukraine into the Baltic States and eastern Poland. When you look across western Germany into the British Isles one might perk up and think…ooo some relief, but when you put it into context that many locations have for the month of July between 50 and 75 mm (2-3 inches of rain) and you started the first quarter of the month essentially dry, then add roughly 19 to 38 mm (0.75-1.50 inches) of rain by the time 75 percent of the month has gone, you are still left with around 50 percent for the month with about a week left. Then you throw in the nature of how this precipitation will occur over the two-week period and it most likely will occur from thunderstorms, therefore not everyone is going to see rainfall on a given day.

The point I am trying to get across is that the area from western Germany into the British Isles is more likely to have their dry conditions continue through the next two weeks with isolated to scattered storms. With that, I can’t rule out a moderate drought developing across this area. This in turn will continue to hurt the growing season as we now move through at last half of the season with less-than-ideal precipitation amounts. The last couple of points I want to address with this kind of go hand-in-hand. The less precipitation you have, the more likely the ground is going to be dry. The dry ground when you have the right conditions (a southerly/southwesterly warm air mass) could enhance temperatures, leading max temperatures to possibly go above guidance. When you have a dry ground, it also leads to an enhanced to extreme risk for wildfires, especially in forested areas and areas that have scrub. The best way to avoid wildfires, don’t start a camp fire or toss your just used cigarettes onto the dry ground. These small flames could lead to significant conditions if they fall on dry ground with fire fuel (dry scrub, leaves, etc.) to work with.

Stay with AccuWeather.com for the latest in your forecast (when will it rain next?). If you have a question, comment or concern, you can reach me on twitter: Tylertheweather.

Report a Typo