Potential climate change impacts on Atlantic hurricanes by the end of the century

New research conducted by two NOAA scientists looked at the potential impacts on Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes from the projected 2 degrees Fahrenheit of global warming by the end of the century.

AccuWeather's RealVue™ satellite image showed Hurricane Ida's eye as it was nearing landfall late in the morning on Sunday, Aug. 29, 2021.

(AccuWeather)

Here is what they determined through their study......

A 15-percent increase in rainfall rates in tropical storms and hurricanes.

A 2- to 3-foot increase in storm inundation due to steadily increasing sea levels. This will also lead to greater coastal damage and economic losses.

A 10-percent increase in the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes. However, there is still significant uncertainty with this projection.

A 15-percent decrease in the number of all Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes. Again, low confidence with this estimate.

According to the report, any long-term trends in economic damages from Atlantic hurricanes due to climate change are likely much lower than the influence of past increases in population and infrastructure along the coast.

Based on the projected future warming, a doubling of damage every generation from Atlantic hurricanes can be expected due to further increases in population, infrastructure and inflation along the coast.

This research was led by Dr. Chris Landsea, who is NOAA's chief of tropical analysis and forecasting at the National Hurricane Center and Tom Knutson, who is a senior scientist from NOAA's GFDL.