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A quick update from my post yesterday. If you missed it, click here to view the complete post.
My thoughts have changed little, and the models continue to be pretty darn close through Tuesday. Expect well-below-normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday with a shower, even a thundershower, chance spreading east and south those two days. A deep marine layer in the Los Angeles and San Diego area Tuesday could mean a little light rain and drizzle in the morning hours, then an afternoon shower.
After Tuesday, the models part ways again with the European moving the center of the low east into the southern Nevada area with a trough hanging back over Southern California. However, the GFS still has a well-developed, closed low near Pt. Conception Wednesday and a little farther south over the Los Angeles Basin on Thursday. Obviously one model would have a better chance for a shower or thundershower than the other. As I explained yesterday, we are in a REX block and things evolve very slowly in these blocks. I am leaning more toward the slower GFS because of that.
No matter which model, there is at least two days for the chance of rain and temperatures are going to well below normal.
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Tropical Rainstorm Bud will fuel downpours and bring flash flooding to the Southwest through Saturday night. Next week, heat is expected to build in across the West.
Tropical moisture from Bud will surge into the Southwest U.S. Friday and into the weekend and will lead to heavy showers and thunderstorms.
A ridge of high pressure will promote heat across the Intermountain West this week.
An increase in showers and thunderstorms will occur into this week across the interior western U.S. Heat will build in late next week.
Dry and windy conditions along with above-average heat will continue the risk for wildfires across the Southwest. The heat will retreat over the weekend though.
Temperatures will remain above-average through next week across the western U.S. and may even challenge records in some places.