Update of My Winter Forecast

Here is the update of the winter forecast I issued back in late September that I promised. My original forecast that I issued late in September for each province will be in the regular type. The updated forecast will be in bold. I know it is long, but I wanted to compare what my thoughts were a little over a month ago to what they are now.

Winter outlook for British Columbia

In terms of a winter forecast, this one for British Columbia is probably the one I have the greatest confidence in. I am seeing fairly strong signals among a number of factors and modeling for a generally dry and mild winter for the southern half of British Columbia. This would be bad news for skiers. Though, skiers did get spoiled last January!

I think we may already be seeing a preview of the overall winter pattern for British Columbia this week with a distinct split in the jet stream. This is certainly a characteristic of El Nino. I believe this type of split jet stream flow will be fairly common into the winter, but certainly not all the time. With this type of split you typically have a strong northern jet stream sweeping into northern British Columbia, which by the way, will lead to slightly above-normal precipitation for northern British Columbia. The southern jet will cut across California, leaving southern British Columbia in the fairly mild and dry zone between the two jet streams. To clear things up, the jet streams are like a roadway for storms to track along. In most normal winters, we typically deal with just one, strong jet stream cutting across North America. With the second, southern jet stream being more active in an El Nino year, the northern jet typically ends up being farther north compared to normal, especially across the western half of Canada. This setup sustains more mild Pacific air coming across British Columbia, while the arctic air remains trapped north of the jet stream, in areas such as the Northwest Territories. Again, there will be plenty of times during the winter when the split goes away, and that will allow for a few outbreaks of very cold air, but less than normal.

To recap, quite dry this winter across southern British Columbia with below-normal snowfall across the mountains and interior. The winter will be a mild one across the south compared to normal. In the north, precipitation will be near normal, but slightly above normal in the far northwest corner. Snowfall should be close to normal. Temperatures across the north should average slightly above normal this winter.
Update: Latest indications point to a wetter and slightly cooler-than-normal start to the winter, which includes a good chunk of December. Snowfall in the mountains early in the winter will be above normal. That pattern changes by January, with drier-than-normal conditions and above-normal temperatures through the end of the winter. Snowfall will be much less than normal from January through March.

Preliminary winter forecast for the Yukon Territory

I believe that the strong northern branch of the Jet stream coming in off the Pacific will be close enough to the south for above-normal precipitation, which of course means more snow than usual for the Territory. Temperatures will average near to slightly above normal over the southwestern part of the province and near to slightly below normal the farther north and east you go. Update: It appears that the winter will start out slightly colder and snowier than normal. The middle and end of the winter will trend close to normal in both temperatures and snowfall.

My preliminary winter forecast for Alberta

I am not quite as confident with the winter forecast for Alberta compared to my forecast for British Columbia, which I issued Wednesday. Again, I anticipate that there will be more of a split in the jet stream this winter compared to normal, as it moves into western North America. This will tend to keep the coldest air farther north than normal, while Pacific air is allowed to move through the region at longer intervals. Temperatures across southern Alberta will be milder than normal this winter. Central Alberta should be close to slightly above normal, while the north will average near normal for temperatures this winter. Snowfall will average below normal across central and southern Alberta. In the north, you can expect a normal amount of snowfall this winter. I still think there can be a couple of bigger snow events for Calgary and Edmonton during November. Keep in mind, this is a preliminary look. We should get a lot more clues to the winter by the middle and end of October. Update: December will be slightly below normal for temperature and slightly above normal for snowfall. January through March will trend warmer than normal, with below-normal snowfall.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba preliminary winter outlook

Overall, it looks like much of southern Saskatchewan will experience a fairly dry and mild winter compared to normal. With the anticipated split jet stream flow, most of the storm tracks will be too far to the north and south, leaving the region in a relative minimum zone for precipitation. As you could guess, this also means snowfall will be below normal. My confidence in the winter forecast diminishes as you go farther north. The northern branch of the jet stream will be moving south into the region on several occasions, leading to quick bursts of arctic air and some clipper-type storm systems which will produce generally light snowfall. Other times, Pacific air will spread across the region, leading to milder and drier weather. So overall, look for near-normal snowfall and slightly above-normal temperatures for northern Saskatchewan. Update: December will average slightly above normal for temperature in the south and slightly below normal for temperature in the north. January will be near normal in temperature and precipitation, including snowfall. February and March will end up slightly colder than normal with near-normal precipitation, including snowfall.

Manitoba is a real tough call. A lot depends on the strength of the expected El Niño. Right now, I am still anticipating a weak to moderate El Niño. If this is the case, then much of Manitoba can expect a very changeable winter. (A strong El Niño usually argues for a milder winter across central and southern Manitoba.) The exception is probably the far southwestern corner, where I believe the winter will be dry and slightly milder than normal. For the remainder of Manitoba, I think there will be a persistent west to northwest flow of air in the upper atmosphere. When the flow is west, conditions will be dry and fairly mild, but there will be many times when the flow turns more northwesterly, especially the second half of the winter, which will send clipper-type storm systems across south-central Manitoba, which will bring steady, light snow along and north of the track. Behind these clippers, there will be quick blasts of arctic air for a couple of days followed by another brief warmup. In closing, generally dry, slightly mild weather this winter across southwestern Manitoba. The remainder of Manitoba will be near to slightly above normal for temperature and below normal for snowfall the first half of winter. The second half of the winter (mid-January on) will bring near to slightly below-normal temperatures and near-normal snowfall.
Update: December will average slightly above normal in the south for temperature and slightly below normal in the north. Precipitation will be close to normal for the winter, including snowfall.

My preliminary winter forecast for Ontario

Western Ontario: Overall, I believe the winter will end up slightly milder than normal with below-normal snowfall. December looks quite mild with near-normal precipitation and snowfall. Middle and late winter will trend colder and drier. Temperatures during January will be slightly above normal. February and March will end up slightly below normal for temperatures. Update: December will be close to normal for temperature, then below-normal temperatures from mid-January through March. Snowfall will be close to normal this winter.

Sault Ste. Marie to North Bay region: Overall, the winter will bring near-normal temperatures and slightly below-normal snowfall. December looks fairly mild, but there will be a couple of decent snow events. January through March will end up slightly colder than normal with near-normal snowfall. Most of the snow will come from clipper-type systems, which have limited moisture. Most of the bigger storms may end up tracking too far to the south and east to bring big snows the second half of the winter. Update: December will average slightly warmer than normal, with normal precipitation, including snowfall. The remainder of the winter is looking cold compared to normal with above-normal snowfall.

Southwestern Ontario (Windsor to Toronto): A mild start to the winter, but precipitation will still average close to normal, with a mix of rain and snow events. Snowfall will be below normal for December. January and February could be good lake-effect snow months in the normally favored areas downwind of Huron and the Georgian Bay, as lake water temperatures should remain above normal through January, creating the greater instability needed for heavier and more widespread lake snow bands, as the colder air moves over the warmer lakes. Elsewhere, I expect snowfall to get back to near normal for later January and February. Temperatures will average near to slightly below normal over this entire region January and February. March is looking colder and snowier than normal. Update: A mild start to the winter. I know it already feels like we have started winter, but look at the calendar. Along with being mild, December will bring normal precipitation, but below-normal snowfall. January to March will be a different story. Expect this period to run colder than normal with near-normal snowfall. However, snowfall in the lake-effect snow belts will be above normal.

Eastern Ontario (Peterborough to Ottawa): Mild start to the winter with below-normal snowfall in December. January to March will end up turning colder than normal with near-normal snowfall. I am concerned that there could be a couple of major ice (freezing rain events) this winter. Update: December will trend milder than normal, with normal precipitation, but below-normal snowfall. January through March could end up being quite cold with several outbreaks of arctic air. Precipitation during this period will be below normal, but snowfall will be near normal.

My winter forecast for the Northwest Territories

I believe the winter will start out colder than normal then trend to near or slightly above normal the second half. Snowfall will average above normal the first half of the winter then below normal the second half. Update: The winter will start out near normal for temperature and snowfall. January through March will average colder than normal with below-normal snowfall.

My preliminary winter forecast for Quebec

This forecast is basically for the southern half of Quebec, where most of the population is located. I will break the regions into two.

Southwestern Quebec (includes Montreal and points west/northwest): As I have been saying in the Ontario forecasts, it appears that the winter will start out fairly mild with near-normal precipitation. Snowfall for the early part of the winter will be close to normal. I am concerned for a couple of moderate ice (freezing rain) events the first half of the winter. The second half of the winter from mid-January on is looking colder than normal, with a few outbreaks of arctic air, especially during February. Snowfall will continue to average near normal the second half of the winter. Expect a greater number of days of light snow/flurries the second half of the winter compared to normal. Update: December will average close to normal for temperature and slightly above normal for precipitation. Snowfall will also end up a little greater than normal for December. January through March looks cold, with several arctic outbreaks and lots of flurries and snow showers. Precipitation during this time will average below normal. Snowfall will be close to normal.

Southeastern Quebec (areas east/northeast of Montreal, including Sherbrooke and Quebec City): December will bring slightly above-normal temperatures with near-normal precipitation. Snowfall will be close to normal in the early winter. The winter will turn colder than normal from mid-January into February and March. Snowfall will be near normal for January, then above normal for February and March, with the possibility of a few moderate to heavy snowstorms. Update: Slightly warmer compared to normal for December with normal precipitation, including snowfall. Cold compared to normal from January through March. Precipitation will average slightly below normal during this period. Snowfall will be near normal.

My preliminary winter forecast for New Brunswick

I believe this winter could end up being a good one for snow lovers. A rather mild start to the winter with slightly below-normal precipitation and snowfall. From mid-January on into March, it will be slightly colder -than normal. Precipitation will be above normal. Snowfall will also be above normal, perhaps well above normal, with a series of major coastal storms tracking up from the coastal waters just southeast of New England. Update: December and January will end up slightly above normal for temperature and precipitation. Snowfall will be near normal. February and March will turn colder than normal with slightly greater-than-normal snowfall.

My preliminary winter forecast for Nova Scotia and PEI

Overall, I believe this winter will end up fairly stormy compared to normal. Temperatures will average close to normal. Breaking it down, temperatures the first half of the winter will be close to or slightly above normal across the entire region. Precipitation will also be near normal. Snowfall the first half of the winter will be close to normal, thanks to a couple of moderate snow events, but there will also be a number of rain, or snow changing to rain events. The second half of the winter gets more interesting, I believe. Temperatures will still average close to normal, but very cold air masses originating up near Hudson Bay will become more common and sweep in behind major coastal storms. I also expect a marked increase in large, coastal storms moving up from the southwest. Snowfall should average above normal from January through March across much of the region, with the potential for one or two major snow events. Changeovers to rain could complicate matters across the south and east coast of Nova Scotia, with that warmer-than-normal water not far off the coast. This same warmer water will also help lead to more intense coastal storms. Update: December and much of January is looking slightly milder compared to normal. The second half of the winter will be colder than normal. Precipitation during December and January will be close to normal, with below-normal snowfall. The second half of winter will bring near-normal precipitation and above-normal snowfall. Watch for some major coastal storms during this period.

My preliminary winter forecast for Newfoundland

The winter will start out near to slightly above normal for temperatures. Precipitation will average near normal. Snowfall will also be close to normal. From mid-January through March, the overall pattern will turn stormier than normal, with several large, ocean storms bringing significant precipitation to much of southern and central Newfoundland. Temperatures during this period will average close to normal, but I do anticipate large swings in temperatures during the period, meaning a couple of relatively mild days followed by a sharp turn to much colder weather then back upward yet again. What I am saying is that I do not think there will be many long stretches of mild, or very cold, weather. The temperature pattern will more resemble a roller coaster. As you can probably guess, I think this winter will be a pretty good one for snow lovers, especially during January and February. Overall, snowfall for the entire winter should average above normal. Update: Last but certainly not least! The winter as a whole will bring near-normal temperatures, but like I said earlier, there will be large swings in temperature, especially during the second half of the winter. Precipitation during December and January will be slightly below normal, including snowfall. Precipitation the second half of the winter will be above normal, as well as snowfall.

That's it!. I will certainly grade myself on this forecast sometime in April. Questions or comments are always welcome, just email me at andersonb@accuwx.com

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