Much of the country is expected to have a warm to very warm summer. The exception will be from Labrador and northern Quebec to Atlantic Canada. There are currently no indications that this year's fire season (for Canada as a whole) will be out of the ordinary. However, I do have some concern about an increased wildfire threat for far northern BC and northern Alberta compared to normal.

Breaking it down by province and/or regions......

British Columbia: Summer is expected to be drier than normal for most areas, including Vancouver. The exceptions may be the BC Rockies the second half of the summer due to a greater than normal amount of thunderstorm activity. Streamflows are expected to be near normal for most of the summer. I also expect more showers than usual across the far northwest portion of the province. In terms of temperatures, ocean water surface temperatures off the coast are running lower compared to previous years and this should keep temperatures close to normal along the coast. However, the projected drier weather pattern across the southern interior favors a higher number of days above 30 degrees Celsius compared to normal.

Alberta: With the exception of the mountains, where I think there will be more thunderstorms than usual the second half of the summer, much of the province will be drier compared to normal this winter with extended spells of hot weather, especially during July and August. Drought may become much more widespread across the western Prairies during the middle and end of summer. If there is a region where there may be a significant increase in wild fire activity later in the summer it would be the northern half of Alberta.

Saskatchewan: Increasingly dry with both July and August averaging above normal in terms of temperature. Expect extended spells of hot weather later in the summer. Despite the drier trends, I do not believe we will be facing any widespread, serious drought for most of the province.

Manitoba: Summer is expected to be very warm overall. Rainfall is expected to average close to normal, however, we may see more thunderstorms than usual during the middle of the summer.

Ontario: Very warm summer overall, but not terribly humid. There is potential for a few severe thunderstorm outbreaks, especially from July into mid-August. Overall, rainfall is expected to average close to normal.

Quebec: Fairly typical summer temperatures across the southern half of the province, but frequent fronts will bring bouts of breezy, wet and cooler weather to the northern half. Summer will be less humid than usual, but the increase in fronts will bring brief periods of showers and thunderstorms, thus rainfall is expected to average close to normal in the southern half, including Montreal.

Maritimes: Not expecting a lot of heat this summer, but humidity may be higher than usual the second half of the summer. The increase in humidity is expected to favor more showers and inland thunderstorms this summer. Cool, ocean breezes will be common along the coast.

Newfoundland: Expect cooler and slightly wetter than normal conditions to dominate this summer. Coastal areas may be especially cool due cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures and a greater number of days with fog.

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