Spring 2020 outlook

Overall confidence with the spring forecast is a little lower than usual due to a significant lack of ocean and atmospheric signals.

A wet spring is shaping up from southern Ontario to southern Quebec and portions of the Maritimes. The combination of more storms and abnormally high lake water levels in the Great Lakes will increase the risk of flooding and beach erosion along many lake shores. The month of January brought record high lake water levels to lakes Michigan, Huron and Superior.

There has been very little ice on the Great Lakes so far this winter, and we see no indication of any significant buildup of ice on the lakes through the rest of this winter. Thus we expect much-lower-than-normal lake ice along the shores into this spring. The normal average maximum ice coverage on the Great Lakes during the winter is about 55 percent. As of early February, that percentage has been consistently under 10 percent. 

Based on current conditions and the spring outlook, there is an increased risk of spring flooding through the St. Lawrence Valley region this spring. 

Expect a good spring ski season across Quebec.

Despite the drier-than-normal winter, there is a moderate risk of major spring flooding along the Red River Valley in Manitoba later this spring as there is a higher-than-normal amount of water frozen up in the underlying soil. 

Deep snowpack in the Canadian Rockies should lead to an excellent spring ski season. However, this will increase the risk of river and stream flooding down into the lower elevations of Alberta and British Columbia during late spring as the snow melts. 

Based on the winter so far and the projected spring outlook, I anticipate an earlier spring bloom compared to normal, especially across southeastern Canada as soil temperatures are also running above normal.