Signs pointing toward a mild March for much of Canada

Before I get to the weekly long-range update, an Alberta Clipper storm will be tracking eastward from the eastern Prairies to Ontario then Atlantic Canada between Saturday night and Monday.

There will be a narrow band of moderate to locally heavy snowfall just north of the storm track as unseasonably warm air to the south of the storm gets lifted up and over the cold air to the north.

At this point it looks like cities such as Winnipeg, Thunder Bay, Sudbury, North Bay, Ottawa and Quebec City could be in line for significant accumulations. As is always the case, the exact track of the storm will be extremely critical, and it is just a little too early to nail that down.

There will be a two to three-day shot of cold coming into eastern Canada late next week and into that weekend, but nothing compared to what we saw earlier in February.

Weekly long-range forecast model interpretation

Despite the projected negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, it looks like much of Canada will experience near- to above-normal temperatures for the first three weeks of March.

In addition to the Arctic region, 500 mb heights are projected to remain above normal (widespread, upper-level ridging) across a large portion of the country as most of the storminess cuts across the southern and central U.S.

Another factor that we have to consider is even if the ridging breaks down and we get a northwesterly flow from the Arctic deep into southern Canada the air mass over the Arctic region continues to be well above normal in terms of temperature, which reduces the risk real cold air reaching far to the south.

The Great Lakes are almost free of ice, which will also have a modifying effect on cold air masses trying to spread southeast.

Snowcover over the southern Prairies is sparse, which also helps modify the incoming cold.

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