Long-range weather pattern update through mid-February

I have a feeling that the coldest stretch of weather from the Prairies to Ontario for the winter will be over the next two weeks. After that it appears that the core of the Arctic air goes back to the other side of the pole into northern Asia. If that air eventually comes back to the North American side of the pole, it may not be until late February or March; by that time the odds of that air mass being colder than anything we have seen so far this winter are slim.

In the meantime, cold air will dominate from the Prairies to eastern Canada with small clipper-type storms and outbreaks of lake-effect snow. The worst of the cold will be directed from the eastern Prairies into NW Ontario and the Upper Midwest of the United States. Most of the bigger storms will likely run up along the coast into Atlantic Canada. High pressure ridge will dominate along the West Coast into the start of February with above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.

One particular Alberta clipper may deliver a general 8-15 cm of snow to central and southeastern Saskatchewan this Saturday night and into Sunday and then into southern Ontario/southern Quebec Monday night into Tuesday of next week.

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