Lack of Sustained Cold Into November

Winter is in no hurry to take hold

Below is my latest interpretation of the ECMWF and CFSv2 extended long-range forecast output through much of November.

A combination of indicators support more of a zonal (west to east) flow of air to dominate across southern Canada and the U.S. over the next few weeks, which means plenty of milder, Pacific air to spread across the country.

While there will be some intrusions of cold air (one of those possibly coming into the East late next week) during the period, most of these cold shots will be quickly in and out due to a lack of upstream blocking.

In the meantime, the combination of a storm and some cold air coming in on the backside will lead to a period of accumulating snow from the Canadian Rockies through the Prairies Sunday into Monday, but nothing too significant. For instance, I can see a general 2-5 cm of snow later Sunday into Sunday night in the Calgary area, with higher amounts in the foothills to the west.

A storm associated with what is left of Ana will bring moderate to heavy rain to western BC late Monday into Tuesday. Right now, this does not look like a major wind maker, but more of a flash flood threat. Heavy, wet snow will fall in the high elevations of the Coastal Range and also into the BC Rockies with this.

The AccuWeather Canada Winter Outlook will be released next week.