As I mentioned yesterday, the updated monthly ECMWF long-range forecast model was just released to our in-house systems here at AccuWeather.
The model now goes out through January 2014. Keep in mind, the skill level diminishes greatly from the second month on, so please take this with a grain of salt, especially from October through January. Temperature anomaly forecast skill is also higher than precipitation.
Below are some of the highlights from this latest forecast by month....
August --Warmer than normal for BC and the northern Prairies, including Newfoundland. --Hotter than normal for southern U.S. Plains. --Slightly wetter for the St. Lawrence Valley and Newfoundland. --Drier in northern Ontario. --Drier than normal for Gulf of Mexico, Florida.
September --Much above-normal temperatures for most of eastern Canada. --Much wetter for western BC. --Wetter than normal for Manitoba and northwestern Ontario. --Drier than normal from Nova Scotia to Newfoundland. --Drier than normal along Texas coast and into Caribbean (lower tropical activity??).
October --Much of eastern and Atlantic Canada above-normal temperatures, including northeast U.S. --Wet pattern for southern BC and U.S. Pacific Northwest.
November --Colder than normal from northern BC through south-central Saskatchewan. --Warmer than normal for Newfoundland and the southern U.S. Plains. --Drier for central and northern coast of BC.
December --Colder than normal from BC through the Prairies, much-below for Saskatchewan. --Warmer than normal from southern U.S. Plains through southeast U.S. and into northeast U.S. --Warmer than normal for northern Quebec. --Drier compared to normal along coastal BC. --Much wetter than normal from lower Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley. --Wetter than normal for southern Ontario, northern California and Oregon. --Slightly drier across Newfoundland.
January 2014 --Colder than normal for southern BC and into U.S. Pacific Northwest. --Warmer than normal for eastern and Atlantic Canada then through the eastern 1/4 of the U.S. and into Texas. Much above-normal temperatures for the Southeast U.S. --Drier than normal from southwest BC to northern California. --Wetter than normal from Arkansas to Ohio. --Slightly wetter (rain or snow) than normal from eastern Ontario through southern and eastern Quebec.
We will do this all over again after the next update comes out on Aug. 8.
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Plenty of uncertainty with the weather pattern later in September.
Hot, dry conditions to prevail across BC into next week while rounds of cooler and showery weather spread from the eastern Prairies to Quebec.