Extreme pattern causing record cold, snow and warmth from west to east
The highly amplified weather pattern continues across Canada with a large ridge over Alaska that is sending Arctic air directly into the western prairies with rounds of early-season snow, while a massive ridge along the East Coast will take hold this weekend and early next week bringing record warm to parts of Ontario and Quebec.
--Record October snowfall in Calgary, Alberta, yesterday with anywhere from 25-45 cm in and around Calgary. A total of 36 cm at Calgary International Airport through Tuesday evening! The previous October daily record for snowfall in Calgary was 29.7 cm on Oct. 4, 1914. (thanks to CTV's David Spence).
The combination of an closed, low/mid-level storm tracking along the U.S./Canada border, upslope flow and a fresh supply of Arctic air was the key to this heavy snow event in Alberta.
Here is a <a href="https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/weathersummaries_e.html" target=n>link</a> from EC showing the latest snowfall totals for Alberta, BC and Saskatchewan.
Moderate to heavy snow also fell across southern Saskatchewan last night and this morning, including the Regina area.
<strong>Looking ahead......</strong>
--Another front will bring showers and some thunderstorms to southern Ontario late tonight into early Thursday and in Quebec Thursday morning and midday.
--Northern edge of a weak storm may produce a period of wet snow across southwestern Manitoba Thursday night.
--Eastern ridge rebuilds late this weekend through early next week which may lead to record warmth from Ontario to southern Quebec with temperatures averaging 6 to 11 degrees Celsius above normal.
--At the same time, there is the potential for another round of heavy snow over southern Alberta. Mid-range forecast models are still at odds with timing and track of storm, but precipitation type is agreed and it will be snow. Right now, I am looking at snow starting anywhere from Sunday night to Monday night over central and southern Alberta and potentially lasting into Wednesday with a very slow-moving storm. Southwestern Alberta looks to be the area that has the best chance for heavy accumulations. Accumulating snow may also get into southwestern Saskatchewan early next week.
<img src="https://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/miscellaneous/2018/590x331_10031617_vvv.jpg"/>
--Temperatures from the Rockies to Saskatchewan are likely to average 5 to 10 degrees Celsius below normal much of next week. What happened to fall?
--Fairly wet pattern for the western/upper Great Lakes region over the next 10 days as this region will be in the battleground zone between the warmth in the East and cold in the West.
--Fairly dry pattern over the next 10 days for the northern Prairies, western BC and the Middle Atlantic states.
--There are indications that this extreme pattern will begin to settle down after Oct. 15 as the eastern ridge breaks down, allowing the westerlies to get back into the eastern U.S. This would lead to more normal temperatures for eastern Canada the second half of October while the Alaska ridge shifts to BC, leading to a significant warmup in BC starting in mid-October.
--Keep in mind though, the NAO is expected to remain strongly positive through much of October, so any chilly shots of air that come into the east will come and go and not linger for long.
