Solar eclipse weather forecast: AccuWeather provides 1st cloud outlook
The final countdown is underway for the astronomy event of the decade -- a total solar eclipse -- and long-range experts have the scoop on the weather forecast of the year: Will it be cloudy on April 8?
Not only does day turn to night under totality, our surroundings also change. Try to notice these changes under the total eclipse.
Millions of people will look skyward on April 8 to witness a breathtaking sight unlike any other in nature -- a total solar eclipse -- as long as the weather doesn't spoil the spectacle.
AccuWeather long-range forecasters have identified weather patterns and emerging trends to create the first look at the weather forecast for the astronomy event of the decade.
"AccuWeather’s eclipse forecast is based on the long-term historical average cloud cover data used by NOAA and many others as a foundation, and then our long-range forecasters further identified weather patterns and trends that may potentially affect cloud cover to create a first look at the weather forecast for the day of the eclipse," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter explained.
A map showing the path of totality where a total solar eclipse will be visible on April 8, 2024. (NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio)
To see the total solar eclipse, people need to be in a narrow zone called the path of totality, which will stretch from Texas to Maine in the United States. The rest of the country will experience a partial solar eclipse.
What areas of the US have the best chance for good weather?
Southern Texas and areas of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes currently have the best chance of favorable weather for the total solar eclipse based on the latest data, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.
The odds of cloudy weather are slightly higher in the Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley, while the Northeast faces the highest risk of clouds. However, there is still a chance that cloud-free weather will win out in these areas on April 8 as the sun, moon and Earth align to create the eclipse.
AccuWeather meteorologists used historical cloud cover, long-range forecasting trends and factors such as El Nino to create a cloud forecast for the total solar eclipse on April 8, 2024.
Why the solar eclipse cloud forecast is so complex
The AccuWeather eclipse forecast provides information for April 8 as a whole. However, the cloud cover during the length of the eclipse can vary and the forecast will be fine-tuned as April 8 approaches.
A partial solar eclipse rises behind clouds, Thursday, June 10, 2021, in Arbutus, Md. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
On top of the specific timing of the eclipse, multiple weather factors could play out during the first half of April.
"There is a good possibility that a cold front will be moving across central and eastern U.S. near this time of the eclipse," Pastelok said. The exact location of this front could be the difference between a cloud-filled and a cloud-free sky.
Additionally, there is the risk of a slow-moving storm system over the Southeast during April. "If one of these [systems] forms, the duration of cloud cover can be longer with any system leading to poor viewing," Pastelok added.
Deep dive in AccuWeather's initial eclipse cloud forecast
The gradual weakening of El Niño is one of the factors taken into account when creating AccuWeather's first cloud forecast for the solar eclipse. El Niño occurs when the water temperature near the equator of the eastern Pacific Ocean is above historical averages, which in turn alters the weather patterns across North America.
"El Niño conditions will remain despite rapid weakening this spring and could continue to produce an active pattern across the nation around the time of the eclipse," Pastelok explained.
April is also when the severe weather season is ramping up, resulting in the possibility of thunderstorms in parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. "However, we cannot make that call from this far out," Pastelok said.
While smaller cumulus clouds can dissipate during an eclipse as the moon blocks out the sun, thunderstorms can continue to thrive and may spell a stormy disaster for folks who need to seek shelter rather than outside to witness the eclipse.
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One of the upsides to the long-range forecast is the temperature outlook for early April.
"At this point, we do not see any serious late-season cold weather, but it could be chillier across parts of the south-central Plains and Midwest, cooler across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast," Pastelok explained.
The lack of Arctic air will make it more comfortable to spend extended periods outside on April 8, although a coat or sweatshirt may still be needed in the northern regions of the path of totality.
Continue to check back with AccuWeather leading up to April 8 for the latest cloud forecast for the total solar eclipse.
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