South faces repeated rounds of rain, risk of severe weather
The first full week of March will end on a stormy note across the South with heavy rain and strong thunderstorms sweeping through the region.
A powerful storm is expected to spread drenching rainfall and severe thunderstorms across parts of the South-Central states late this week before pulling a swath of Gulf moisture and flooding rainfall into the Southeast this weekend.
The stormy conditions will develop and push from Texas to the Carolinas from late Thursday to Saturday. Forecasters say that a pocket of cooler air will settle across the Plains this week, which will encounter the warm, moist air advancing out of the Gulf.
Risk for severe thunderstorms
The clash of air masses can spark the rapid development of thunderstorms and downpours from Kansas to eastern Texas from Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.
"A persistent flow coming out of the Gulf of Mexico will bring along multiple chances for rain and thunderstorms across the South this week. A potent storm late this week is expected to yield a threat for flooding rainfall and locally severe thunderstorms across the South between Thursday night and Saturday," explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
Thunderstorms can turn severe as they track eastward across Texas, Oklahoma, northern Louisiana and southwestern Arkansas Thursday and Thursday night. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. However, there can also be an isolated tornado.
By Friday, the drenching storms will track over the Mississippi Valley, triggering travel delays across heavily used roadways such as interstates 10, 20, 22, 30, 40 and 55. As the deluge of steady rainfall persists across the Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley throughout the day on Friday, airline delays and cancellations may tally up for locations such as Jackson, Mississippi, Atlanta and Nashville.
Isolated tornadoes, hail, damaging winds and flooding will be the primary threats from Friday to Friday night as storms develop from eastern Texas to Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ for gusty winds is set at 80 mph.
Rounds of downpours to cross the region
From Saturday to Saturday night, the southern flank of the storm system will continue to move across the Gulf and Southeast coasts. Rainfall totals across this zone in 24 hours can reach 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts possible across central regions of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.
From late Thursday to Saturday night, forecasters warn that 48-hour totals can even range upwards of 6 inches as repeat downpours impact the area.
"Tallying up the expected rain over the course of the week across the South, localized swaths of 6-8 inches of rain with locally higher amounts are possible," Buckingham said.
After the tragic death of a local teenage driver, this Texas-based singer-songwriter created a 30-second PSA jingle to help make sure people turn around and don’t drown when approaching flooded roads.
The risk for flash flooding will become elevated as the week progresses, especially in the wake of rounds of rain and thunderstorms early this week. Buckingham added that minor to moderate river flooding could even be possible as rain drenches the South.
Since the start of the year, locations like New Orleans and Little Rock have trended upwards of 130% of the historical average rainfall, with both cities pacing at over a foot of rain since Jan. 1. The above-average rainfall has proved helpful for drought conditions across the region, forecasters say.
Drought conditions have improved across much of the Mississippi Valley over the last few months, based on the latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor. Currently, no areas from eastern Texas to Tennessee are reporting exceptional drought, and very limited zones are facing severe drought.
Temperatures to sink following stormy week
Behind the swath of persistent rainfall, cooler conditions will spread across the Gulf Coast. Cities such as New Orleans, Jackson, Mississippi, and Birmingham, Alabama, will trend from the middle to upper 70s later this week into the lower 70s and 60s by the weekend, returning to typical early-March values.
After the brief cooldown, daytime highs may begin to rebound slightly across the South by early next week as high pressure becomes anchored over the region. Drier conditions will accompany the gradual temperature rise.
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