Severe thunderstorms to form, shift eastward across the central US
Severe storms with damaging winds, hail and downpours will track from the Rockies at midweek to part of Appalachians later this weekend, threatening travel, outdoor plans and sporadic power outages.
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A daily risk of severe thunderstorms will continue to shift eastward toward the Appalachians in the coming days. The main threat will be from high wind gusts, AccuWeather meteorologists advise.
The severe weather setup through this weekend will be an example of occasional flare-ups that occur during the autumn. This time of the year sometimes brings significant severe weather due to more vigorous storm systems, a strengthening jet stream and increasing temperature contrasts with summerlike warmth clashing with winterlike chill.
A storm that brought heavy rain and mountain snow on Tuesday in California will continue to transfer some of its energy eastward into the Plains for the latter part of this week.
On Thursday, the risk of severe weather will begin to shift to the east over the Plains states.
Thursday afternoon and evening's severe weather risk will extend from the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles to eastern South Dakota. Along with storms packing strong wind gusts, some of the storms will bring flooding downpours and moderate hail. Thursday's AccuWeather StormMax™ wind gust is 75 mph, which is the strength of a Category 1 hurricane.
The main energy from the California storm is forecast to lift northward into Canada on Friday. Because of this, thunderstorm activity over a portion of the Plains and Mississippi Valley are likely to be more spotty in nature. However, a few of the storms that form can be briefly severe with high wind gusts, hail and hard downpours.
Friday's sporadic severe weather risk will extend from near Oklahoma City, in central Oklahoma, to Des Moines, nearly in the middle of Iowa. Like Thursday, Friday's AccuWeather StormMax™ wind gust is 75 mph.
The severe weather potential will increase on Saturday as a ripple in the jet stream circulates across the southern Plains and an influx of Gulf moisture increases over the lower part of the Mississippi Valley.
Saturday's risk of severe weather will extend from northeastern Texas, northern Louisiana and eastern Oklahoma to central Illinois and central Indiana. The severe weather risk includes St. Louis, Little Rock, Arkansas, and Memphis, Tennessee.
There is a risk of lightning when thunderstorms are around. Because of Saturday's severe weather threat, there is the potential for lightning delays at area football games.
"We have highlighted an area where there is a moderate risk of severe weather from central Arkansas to southwestern Illinois, including part of central Missouri," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. "This means there are likely to be more numerous severe thunderstorms in this zone and there is also the possibility of a few tornadoes."
In addition to that tornado threat, is the likelihood of some storms with moderate hail and hard downpours. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust for Saturday is 80 mph.
The severe weather threat will shift farther to the east on Sunday and will extend from the southern part of the Appalachians to near the northeastern part of the Gulf Coast.
Atlanta, Chattanooga, Tennessee, and Birmingham, Montgomery and Dothan, Alabama, will be at risk for some severe weather on Sunday. Some heavy storms may reach into Charlotte in the evening as well. The storms could affect airline flight operations during a busy part of the weekend on Sunday.
Spotty rain will do little for drought relief or to raise river levels
"The spotty nature of the storms, as they traverse the Central states, is unlikely to bring relief in terms of drought," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty said. "Impact on the area's low river levels will generally be insignificant."
The long-running drought conditions over a large part of the Mississippi River drainage basin have caused water levels on the waterway to drop to critical levels. More bottoming of the water levels is likely in the coming weeks, and in some cases, they may approach within a couple of feet of record lows.
When the water level in the shipping channel is very low, the channel itself becomes narrow, and new shoals that have developed pose a risk for tug and barge operations running aground. Low water levels force lighter-weight loads and fewer barges that can be safely pushed up and down the river. The depth of water levels at some of the ports may also be too shallow for normal operations.
When the Mississippi River shipping method is compromised, more expensive means must be used to transport goods and grains in the region. These costs can eventually be passed on to the consumer.
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