Hurricane Simon bringing destructive winds and life-threatening flooding to Mexico
As Hurricane Simon moves slowly near the coast, destructive wind gusts, catastrophic flooding and dangerous storm surge will continue in western Mexico. Tropical moisture could reach the US this week.
Tropical storm watches are in effect in Southern California, but Rachel’s impacts will stretch well into the Southwest.
Hurricane Simon will remain a powerful hurricane moving slowly near western Mexico, bringing catastrophic flooding, extreme winds and dangerous storm surge to the region.
Simon is rated a 4 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Mexico, reflecting the anticipated life-threatening rainfall, destructive winds, dangerous storm surge and significant damage to property and infrastructure in Mexico. Unlike the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which rates storm intensity based on wind speeds alone, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale considers a broader range of impacts.
Low wind shear and eastern Pacific waters warmer than the historical average helped fuel Simon's rapid intensification. The storm strengthened from a Category 1 storm with 90-mph winds to a Category 4 storm with 150-mph winds in just 24 hours last week.
Simon's compact core makes its exact track more difficult to predict with high confidence. However, once the storm moves inland, interactions with the mountainous terrain of western Mexico are expected to cause a loss of organization and wind intensity.
This image, captured on Monday morning, Oct. 12, 2026, shows Major Hurricane Simon off the west coast of Mexico. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
Drenching rainfall raises risk of life-threatening flooding across western Mexico
Heavy rain will continue to soak portions of western Mexico as Simon slowly moves up the western coast. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are anticipated from western Guerrero through Chihuahua, with heavier amounts of 4-8 inches from far western Guerrero into central Durango. As tropical moisture interacts with the steep terrain, extreme rainfall totals of 18-24 inches can occur in the hardest-hit areas near the coast, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 38 inches.
"This heavy rain can lead to widespread life-threatening flooding, washouts and mudslides, especially in the higher elevations," Meteorologist Nick Arman said.
Rapidly rising floodwaters could wash out roads and bridges and make travel dangerous, particularly in mountainous areas where runoff can quickly flow into valleys and streams.
Destructive winds to strike western coast
Tropical storm-force winds will spread northward and eastward as Simon moves inland through Wednesday morning. Damaging winds will howl across western Jalisco, causing widespread power outages, downed trees and significant structural damage. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph could extend from far western Michoacán through Sinaloa, Durango and into Chihuahua. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ for wind gusts is 170 mph.
Powerful onshore winds are expected to produce a dangerous storm surge near and to the right of where the storm tracks.
Residual moisture from Simon to enhance downpours, flood risk in central US
Tropical moisture from Simon is expected to be pulled northeastward during the middle part of the week as the jet stream dips across the central United States. By Wednesday, abundant moisture from Simon as well as the Gulf is expected to support repeated downpours from southwestern Texas to Missouri.
The influx of tropical moisture will increase the risk of flash flooding across portions of the Plains, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Travel can be impacted by low visibility and water over roadways. Some thunderstorms embedded in the heavy rain could become severe, producing locally damaging wind gusts.
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