More than 30 million in Northeast at risk for severe weather
Thunderstorms could pack a punch in terms of downpours and severe weather in a large part of the northeastern United States on Friday, AccuWeather meteorologists warn. Severe thunderstorms are likely to stretch from Maine to portions of Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey, home to tens of millions of people.
"The thunderstorms will break out across portions of the Northeast Friday afternoon as a front dividing warm and humid air to the east from slightly cooler and less humid air to the west approaches," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
The full spectrum of severe weather is possible, ranging from strong wind gusts and flash flooding to hail and even a couple of tornadoes.
Two main areas of thunderstorms are likely.
"The first area will likely form where the air heats up quickly from southern New England to New Jersey and the eastern half of PA during Friday afternoon," Anderson said. Forecasters expect temperatures to surge well into the 80s and lower 90s in this zone as the air trends more humid.
"These New England and upper mid-Atlantic storms are likely to produce intense downpours and strong winds due to the air being so moist," Anderson explained. While the risk of flash flooding may be very limited due to the storms' spotty and fast-moving nature, they may still cause issues for air and ground travel as they approach the busy I-95 corridor from Boston to near New York City later in the afternoon and early in the evening.
Farther north and west, a second area of thunderstorms will form just ahead of the cold front. These storms are more likely to pack strong wind gusts. Frequent gusts between 50 and 60 mph are likely in the storms. An AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph is possible in the most potent thunderstorm cells.
"In western and central Pennsylvania, the storms may form into a single narrow line, that brings a 10-minute downpour," Anderson said. "But, farther north across upstate New York and northern New England, the storms will be much more widespread with higher potential and greater areal coverage for damaging wind gusts, heavy rainfall and even some hail."
Farther to the south, thunderstorms are likely to be much more spotty in nature in portions of Maryland, Delaware, southern New Jersey, Virginia, West Virginia, southeastern Ohio and Kentucky during Friday afternoon and evening. Still, a few isolated strong thunderstorms can occur in this zone and lead to brief torrential downpours and gusty winds.
In the latest United States Drought Monitor report issued on Tuesday, very little has changed in terms of drought intensity and coverage in the New England, upper mid-Atlantic and central Appalachian regions compared to last Tuesday. More than 20% of the region was in moderate drought or worse. Nearly 40% of Massachusetts and all of Rhode Island were in extreme drought, despite localized flooding downpours over the past week.
"Most of this rainfall from Friday's storms should be beneficial. However, as is often the case with summertime thunderstorm activity, some areas may miss out, while other locations may get a 20 min deluge," Anderson said.
While the passage of the front will bring a slight drop in temperature and humidity levels to interior locations from parts of the central Appalachians to northern and western New England on Saturday, the change may be practically unnoticeable along the I-95 corridor.
For example, highs in New York City in the upper 80s to near 90 through Friday will be swapped with highs in the mid-80s over the weekend. Nighttime lows in the mid-70s will be exchanged with highs within a couple degrees of 70. Some of the northern and western suburbs may experience a bit more noticeable dip in temperature at night, compared to Thursday night. Lows near 70 may be swapped with lows in the lower to mid-60s on Saturday and Sunday mornings.
The forward progress of the front is likely to slow and stall near the Atlantic coast this weekend. While a major amount of shower and thunderstorm activity is not anticipated, there may still be pop-up storms. People spending time in Washington, D.C., Baltimore and Richmond, Virginia, may have do dodge some thunderstorm downpours.
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