Tropical trouble in the Eastern Pacific as a new storm could form and make landfall in Mexico
Tropical Storms Irwin and Jova could form in the coming days in the Eastern Pacific, as AccuWeather forecasters focus in on the southern coast of Mexico for potential heavy rain and strong wind impacts by the weekend.
As the 2023 hurricane season nears its climatological peak over the next few weeks, two areas of disturbed weather are being monitored for potential tropical development in the Eastern Pacific late this week, and AccuWeather meteorologists warn that one of the systems could track into Mexico this weekend.
The threat of development comes on the heels of Hurricane Hilary, which originated in the eastern Pacific and slammed parts of Mexico and the southwestern United States with flooding downpours and strong winds this past weekend. It appears that the two potential storms into this weekend will take different paths and will pose little risk to the U.S.
AccuWeather meteorologists say the system farther offshore is most likely to ramp up to a strong tropical storm or hurricane as it drifts westward over the Pacific. The system nearest the coast of Mexico may take a northerly path that brings rain, wind and rough seas to part of Mexico.
The next names for tropical systems that develop in the Eastern Pacific are Irwin and Jova.
Threat of a tropical storm moving into Mexico this weekend
The area of primary concern from tropical development over the next few days is centered a few hundred miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico, say AccuWeather forecasters.
"Not long after Hurricane Hilary doused parts of western Mexico with torrential downpours, a new tropical feature may develop over the coming days," AccuWeather Meteorologist La Troy Thornton said. "This feature will bring enhanced rainfall across a different swath of Mexico that is no stranger to tropical cyclones."
As of Friday, an area of showers and thunderstorms was evident on satellite imagery off the Mexican coast. AccuWeather expects this feature to become somewhat more organized as it drifts to the north-northwest into this weekend.
"This area could become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm this weekend," said Thornton.
Although conditions are favorable for tropical formation and intensification, there will be little time for the system to strengthen beyond a tropical storm, but that does not discount the possibility for the system to reach hurricane status before making landfall late Saturday or Sunday.
"Regardless of development status or strength, heavy rain appears likely to travel up the coast of southwestern Mexico during the weekend," warned Thornton. "The coastal states most in line for potential tropical impacts extend from Oaxaca to Jalisco."
The heavy rain interacting with the mountainous terrain farther inland can lead to flooding and mudslides, while storm surge flooding would be possible at the coast. Strong, gusty winds will also be possible, depending on how much strengthening occurs before landfall.
Fortunately, for portions of northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. still reeling from the flooding caused by Hilary, little, if any, moisture from this storm should make it that far north.
"Since the storm is expected to come ashore in southern Mexico, the mountainous terrain and expected atmospheric flow in the days after should preclude much moisture from moving to the north," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
Some tropical destinations along the southern Mexican coast could be impacted by the budding system, but it appears that Acapulco, which is situated farther southeast along the coast, will avoid a direct landfall. Still, rough surf and rip currents generated by any storm could imperil some swimmers in the ocean offshore of the resort city.
Yet another storm could form, but it should stay away from land
The potential tropical storm headed toward Mexico is not the only area that AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring for potential development. Another area located several hundred miles west of there over the open Pacific Ocean has a high chance of developing into an organized tropical system.
A sampling of ocean water temperatures off the southern and western coasts of Mexico, as of Thursday morning, Aug. 24, local time.
The steering winds over this region of the Pacific are blowing to the west, meaning the budding tropical system will pose a minimal threat to land for many days despite the prospects of a developing and strengthening tropical system due to warm ocean waters.
Provided the feature evolves into a strong tropical system in the first place, it could survive long enough to bring some impacts by way of building seas, increasing winds and some rain to Hawaii in early September, Douty said.
The Eastern Pacific tropical season runs from May 15 to November 30. So far this season, nine tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes have formed, eight of which have become named storms, with five of those achieving hurricane status.
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