Tropical threat could bring heavy rain, dangerous surf to Hawaii
A tropical threat is brewing southeast of Hawaii and could strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane, bringing dangerous surf, heavy rain, flooding and damaging winds to the islands this weekend.
Huge waves spawned by storms near New Zealand slammed into a street right outside of a busy restaurant in Hawaii on June 2.
A large area of thunderstorms about 1,000 miles southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii will evolve into a favorable zone for tropical development over the next few days, and a tropical storm could pass close to the islands this weekend.
The elongated area of thunderstorms extends for hundreds of miles from southwest to northeast, with some broad rotation evident within the moisture zone.
The tropical wave has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm before approaching Hawaii. The next name on the central Pacific list is Lala.
Impacts in Hawaii will depend on when the disturbance begins moving west-northwestward and how much it strengthens. Squalls could increase across the islands as seas build beginning this weekend.
Two main track scenarios are emerging for the high-risk area highlighted southeast of Hawaii, AccuWeather Meteorologist Nicholas Arman said.
"A northern track would likely take the storm over cooler waters, leading to a less intense storm and fewer impacts in the Hawaiian Islands this weekend," Arman explained. "A southern track would take the storm over warmer waters, potentially allowing it to become more intense or even a hurricane, with more significant impacts to the islands."
"There's also the possibility the storm travels directly over the island chain with significant impacts," Arman added.
If the area of interest strengthens into a tropical storm or hurricane and tracks close enough to Hawaii, it could produce dangerous seas and surf, heavy rain, flash flooding and locally damaging winds.
Even if the system does not become a named storm, the tropical wave could strengthen trade winds and bring more frequent showers and thunderstorms to parts of the islands.
How common are hurricane strikes on Hawaii?
Direct hurricane strikes on Hawaii are rare despite the island chain's location in the central Pacific.
Several factors can limit the hurricane threat, including surrounding ocean temperatures, atmospheric wind patterns and wind shear. Hawaii's rugged terrain can also significantly disrupt a tropical storm or hurricane that moves directly over an island. Mauna Kea on the Big Island rises nearly 13,800 feet above sea level.
This image of the tropical central and eastern Pacific was captured on Tuesday morning, Aug. 11, 2026, and shows a large mass of showers and thunderstorms near the center of the image, which could intensify into a tropical depression. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
"Only two hurricanes have made landfall in Hawaii since the 1950s," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "Hurricane Dot made landfall on Kauai in August 1959, and Hurricane Iniki struck Kauai in September 1992. Neither made landfall on the Big Island."
Busy hurricane season to get busier, thanks to strengthening El Niño
As of Aug. 11, the eastern Pacific has produced seven named storms, including two hurricanes, so far this season as El Niño continues to strengthen.
Genevieve became the strongest of the two hurricanes, reaching Category 5 intensity with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph in late July.
Fausto is the only named storm so far this season to have traveled as far west as Hawaii's longitude. The weakening tropical storm passed well north of the islands in late July, limiting its effects to increased waves and isolated showers.
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