Tropical Storm Isaias forms in Gulf, to become Atlantic's first hurricane before striking US

Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to strengthen into the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season and bring flooding rain and high winds to the U.S. central Gulf Coast this weekend.

Tropical Storm Isaias is forecast to track northeastward and quickly ramp up to a hurricane while over the central Gulf. Landfall along the central Gulf Coast is expected Friday night as a strong Category 2 storm.

AccuWeather Hurricane Experts say this will become the first hurricane of the 2026 season, making it the latest first hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin in over 100 years.

Waters in the Gulf are well into the 80s F, which will provide plenty of fuel and help Isaias strengthen into a hurricane as it tracks directly toward the Gulf Coast of the United States.

A hurricane watch is in effect from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass, Florida. A storm surge watch is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River in Louisiana to Yankeetown, Florida.

"The only inhibiting factor will be varying amounts of wind shear," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. Wind shear tends to disrupt the circulation of tropical storms and hurricanes, which can prevent them from strengthening and even cause them to lose intensity.

"Our forecast track has the storm avoiding the strongest wind shear, which should foster strengthening," DaSilva said. "Since Isaias will be moving along with wind shear, in part, the inhibiting effect might be reduced."

Because of warm Gulf waters and the wind shear situation, there is potential for Isaias to rapidly strengthen before the end of this week, with the central pressure plummeting and maximum sustained winds correspondingly increasing significantly over a matter of hours.

It is currently predicted to be a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale when it makes landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast late Friday night or early Saturday morning. "There is a chance the storm peaks as a Category 3, or major hurricane, while over the central Gulf," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno warned.

The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is less than one for Mexico. This scale rates the storm in terms of flooding, wind damage, risk to lives, property and commerce. The RealImpact rating for the U.S. is a two.

The combination of a dip in the jet stream approaching from the Plains and Mississippi Valley and the circulation around the back side of high pressure moving off the mid-Atlantic coast will first pull the storm northward and onshore along the central Gulf Coast.

As the storm organizes and quickly strengthens over the central Gulf, winds will increase and seas will build near the center.

A storm surge of 6-10 feet with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 15 feet is forecast over the Alabama and western part of the Florida Panhandle as Isaias nears the coast Friday night to Saturday morning.

A storm surge ranging from 1-6 feet is forecast from the Florida Big Bend coastal zone through southeastern Louisiana. There will be wave action on top of the storm surge, which will add to the overwash.

Swells will propagate outward, posing dangers to small craft. As the swells reach coastal waters, frequent and strong rip currents will develop on many beaches along the Gulf Coast, particularly on the north-central and northeastern Gulf beaches. At peak intensity, wave heights over the central Gulf may reach 15-20 feet.

As the storm closes in on the north-central Gulf Coast, squally winds and rain will increase. As the storm makes landfall this weekend, most likely somewhere between southeastern Louisiana and the western part of the Florida Panhandle, rain will become heavier and steadier near and north of the center and will expand inland on a north-northeasterly trajectory.

The most substantial impact from the brewing storm will be from heavy rainfall that can lead to flooding, especially in areas where the ground remains saturated from drenching rain in the past week.

A broad area of 1-4 inches of rain is forecast in the southeastern United States with bands of 4-8 and 8-12 inches of rain close to and just east of where the center tracks. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ rainfall for this storm is 25 inches.

The worst of the wind damage and coastal storm surge flooding are expected near and just east of where it makes landfall.

Based on the storm making landfall as a Category 2 at landfall, wind gusts of 100-120 mph are forecast near and just east of the center. "However, because of the swift forward speed of Isaias, damaging winds and power outages are likely to extend well inland," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter warned.

The latest AccuWeather forecast has the strongest winds extending well inland over Alabama.

The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust is 120 mph. A broader zone with tropical storm-force winds of 40-60 mph will extend outward in the Southeastern states, especially near the central Gulf Coast and into Tennessee.

Isaias is not Helene but should be taken seriously

There are significant differences between Isaias and Helene from 2024.

"Isaias will be tracking much farther to the west into the Southeast states, when compared to Helene," Porter explained. "Helene was a more powerful but much slower-moving storm than Isaias is forecast to be. There was also flooding rainfall just hours ahead of Helene in the southern Appalachians."

So, while there may be significant tree damage and power outages well inland, strong winds should be of shorter duration.

Rain from Isaias will be limited to hours rather than many days.

"Flash flooding is always a concern and will be with Isaias; the scope and magnitude of flooding should be significantly less than with Helene," Porter said.

"Another hazard from the storm will be the risk of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes and waterspouts," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "The bulk of the severe weather is likely near and east of the center, but that risk can extend for hundreds of miles to the east this weekend."

Isaias to track well to the north

The jet stream and high pressure circulation will steer the storm over the interior Southeastern states and perhaps as far north as the Ohio Valley late this weekend.

From there, the storm is forecast to turn eastward and cut across the Appalachians and then off the mid-Atlantic coast by early next week. By then, as a tropical rainstorm, drenching downpours can lead to localized flash flooding, especially in steep terrain and in areas where the ground is saturated.

There is a chance that wind shear increases so much along the path early on that the storm falls short of becoming a hurricane. The only other years with no reported hurricanes were well before weather satellites existed -- in 1907 and 1914. However, it is possible that during this era, hurricanes existed but avoided land or ships during peak intensity.

Within a day or two after this storm makes landfall along the Gulf Coast, Rachel, in the eastern Pacific, may bring flooding rain and drought relief to parts of the Western states.

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