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Tropical moisture near Florida could raise storm threat starting Labor Day weekend

An uptick in tropical moisture could help spur development of the next tropical storm during the first full week of September.

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

Published Aug 31, 2026 11:57 AM EDT | Updated Sep 2, 2026 12:11 PM EDT

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A flash flood emergency was issued in Kountze, Texas, after nearly 20 inches of rain fell from Tropical Storm Edouard on Sept. 2.

The first days of September could bring a new tropical threat around Florida this week, boosting shower and thunderstorm activity along the southeastern coast of the United States.

The weather situation is complex, with Edouard spreading heavy rain across eastern Texas. The area in question is totally separate from that storm.

This image of the Gulf, Caribbean and southwest Atlantic was captured on Wednesday morning, Sept. 2, 2026. Edouard can be seen over eastern Texas (upper left). Batches of thunderstorms can also be seen east of Florida (upper right). (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)

The next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is Fay.

"There are pockets of moisture and energy scattered about the eastern Gulf and across Florida this week," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "Wind shear is relatively low in this region, compared to the harsh wind shear that led to Dolly's downgrade hours after it formed late last week."

Waters are sufficiently warm in the region, well above the 80-degree Fahrenheit tropical threshold for development.

While nothing indicates rapid development of a tropical storm in the eastern Gulf or the southwestern Atlantic, this zone does have some risk later this week and into the Labor Day weekend.

Even without an organized tropical depression or storm, separate from the storm in the northwestern Gulf, downpours will drench areas from the Bahamas to Florida periodically this week. The downpours will help ease local dry conditions and keep temperatures from becoming extreme for too long.

As with any tropical downpours, there is potential for localized flash flooding and gusty thunderstorms that could pose hazards to boaters and beachgoers.

More to Read:

Heat to focus in Mississippi Valley, mid-Atlantic ahead of Labor Day
Global ocean heat breaks record months after its usual peak
Midwest, East at risk for damaging storms and flash flooding

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