Subtropical Storm Josephine to brush Canada; 2 more areas showing potential tropical development
As Josephine departs by way of the North Atlantic into the weekend, new tropical threats may arise farther south with building seas, surf and other coastal concerns from Florida to the Carolinas through next week.
Bernie Rayno breaks down where tropical development could occur and why.
A series of offshore storms will bring dangerous surf, beach erosion and coastal flooding to parts of the Atlantic coast through this weekend, even as much of the eastern United States enjoys sunshine.
One of the storms has been spinning off the Atlantic coast for days, and on Wednesday, it organized into Subtropical Storm Josephine. As of 11 a.m. EDT Thursday, the center was located 200 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, and had maximum winds of 65 mph.
This image, captured on Wednesday afternoon, Oct. 21, 2026, shows Subtropical Storm Josephine spinning off the mid-Atlantic coast. (AccuWeather RealVue™ Satellite)
Subtropical Storm Josephine moving into colder North Atlantic
The former nor'easter gained some tropical characteristics while over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream this week, allowing it to become a named storm — the 10th of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
Strengthening steering winds will push Josephine over progressively colder waters in the North Atlantic. However, the storm is expected to track close enough to bring rain and wind impacts from southeastern Massachusetts northeastward into much of coastal Atlantic Canada through Saturday.
The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes due to Josephine in the United States and Canada is less than 1. This six-point scale, from less than 1 to 5, factors in not only wind impacts, but also the effects of the storm's rain, storm surge and beach erosion, as well as the impacts on lives, property and commerce. The Saffir-Simpson Scale only factors in a hurricane's maximum sustained winds.
The offshore storm will also bring rough surf, beach erosion and minor to moderate coastal flooding at high tide from North Carolina to Massachusetts into Thursday evening. These hazards will persist along the eastern Massachusetts coast into Friday.
Because Josephine is farther offshore than the powerful late-September nor’easter, coastal impacts will be less severe overall. However, flooding and erosion are still causing damage to some communities.
Overwash and sand breaches protective dunes along Highway 12 in North Carolina after a nor'easter brought waves and coastal impacts. (Image credit: NC DOT)
More Atlantic storms could prolong hazards along southeast U.S. coast
As Josephine moves away and seas begin to ease from North Carolina to New England, another tropical rainstorm east of Bermuda has a low risk of development into Friday. This storm will have no impact on the U.S. whatsoever.
The next name to be used this hurricane season is Kyle.
However, the pressure difference between a broad area of stormy conditions near the Bahamas and high pressure over the eastern U.S. will strengthen northeasterly winds along the coast. Its coastal impacts will ramp up through Friday and continue through the weekend into early next week.
Building seas will bring large breaking waves and dangerous rip currents to beaches from South Carolina to South Florida beginning on Friday.
Conditions appear generally unfavorable for tropical development of the storm near Bermuda early on because a front will be in the vicinity and the zone will be subject to strong wind shear, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. Wind shear, which is a sudden change in wind speed or direction in the atmosphere, can disrupt tropical development. However, the chance is non-zero with a short window of potential development in the short term.
Storm near Bahamas could become tropical later next week, extending coastal hazards
As stormy conditions persist farther to the south, near the Bahamas, through next week, the risk of tropical development will increase.
Dangerous surf will persist along the southeastern U.S. coast from this weekend through next week, whether or not the storm becomes tropical.
Repeated high tides and persistent onshore winds will prolong beach erosion, while coastal flooding will increase through the weekend into early next week. Higher tides associated with the full moon will combine with storm-driven water levels to increase coastal flooding this weekend into early next week, including in Miami and Charleston, South Carolina. Some of the highest astronomical tides of the year, known as king tides, are possible.
Depending on where that storm forms in proximity to the southeastern U.S. coast next week and its intensity, seas, surf and coastal flooding could significantly worsen.
The tropical name after Kyle is Leah. However, even a strong, slow-moving non-tropical storm can lead to significant weather impacts with disruptions to travel and outdoor activities.
If the storm is large enough or hovers close enough to the Florida or Georgia coasts, it could produce heavy rain well to the west in these two states. Torrential downpours and gusty thunderstorms would impact the Bahamas and Cuba.
Beachgoers and small-boat operators along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor local forecasts and heed advisories and warnings through next week. Stay out of the water when dangerous surf or rip currents are present, as most beaches do not have lifeguards on duty this time of the year.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
