Simon strengthens into Category 4 amid rare triple tropical threat
Three storms will make landfall in the span of just a couple of days, with Simon tracking toward Mexico, Rachel nearing California and Isaias closing in on the Gulf Coast.
Ariella Scalese breaks down a unique setup, with both Rachel and Isaias set to impact millions of people this weekend.
Simon intensified into a major hurricane on Friday night and is expected to bring life-threatening flooding rain, destructive winds and dangerous storm surge to southwestern Mexico this weekend.
This image, captured on Friday night, Oct. 9, 2026, shows Major Hurricane Simon off the west coast of Mexico. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
Waters across much of the eastern Pacific are several degrees warmer than the historical average. Combined with low wind shear, these conditions are favorable for rapid intensification. Simon has strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane and will remain powerful before making landfall along the southwestern coast of Mexico early Sunday morning.
Simon's proximity to the coast of Mexico could limit further intensification if dry air from the mountains becomes drawn into the storm, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alexander DaSilva said.
Simon is rated a 4 on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Mexico, reflecting the expected life-threatening flooding, rainfall, destructive winds, dangerous storm surge and significant damage to property and infrastructure. The Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale rates storm intensity based on wind speeds alone.
A hurricane warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita and a tropical storm watch is in effect from east of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.
Torrential rain, flash flooding threat to extend inland
Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are forecast across a broad area extending from western Oaxaca northward through Chihuahua and into portions of the southwestern United States as tropical moisture spreads northward. Much heavier rainfall of 12-18 inches is expected in parts of southwestern Mexico, including areas from northern Nayarit to western Guerrero.
"The heaviest rain is forecast across coastal areas of Jalisco and Colima, where 18-24 inches can occur, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 38 inches," DaSilva said.
The mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico will increase the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides as heavy rainfall flows into valleys and waterways. Rain from Simon has begun in portions of southwestern Mexico as or Friday morning. By late Monday evening, Simon is forecast to accelerate, spreading tropical moisture and rain to southern portions of the Plains by Tuesday night.
Destructive winds and dangerous storm surge target southwestern Mexico
Intense winds will howl along the southwestern coast of Mexico on Sunday morning as Simon makes landfall. Gusts of 100-120 mph are forecast along portions of coastal Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa, with gusts of 120-140 mph in far western Jalisco. The strongest wind gusts, reaching 140-150 mph, are expected near the eyewall as Simon moves ashore, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 160 mph.
"These winds can cause widespread power outages and down trees, as well as cause significant structural damage," DaSilva said.
Tropical storm-force winds will extend well beyond Simon's center as the storm moves inland. Wind gusts between 40-60 mph are forecast across portions of Sinaloa and Durango, with the potential for downed trees and localized power outages.
As Simon rapidly intensifies over the eastern Pacific, dangerous surf and large waves are expected near and to the right side of the storm's center. Strong onshore winds are forecast to produce a storm surge of 10-15 feet along portions of the Jalisco coastline. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ for storm surge is 15 feet.
Additional tropical activity being monitored
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rachel, also in the eastern Pacific, will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to Southern California and other parts of the southwestern United States later this weekend into early next week. As Rachel interacts with a dip in the jet stream, tropical moisture is forecast to spread well beyond the storm's center, increasing the risk of dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.
In the Atlantic basin, Hurricane Isaias made landfall along the central Gulf Coast Friday night. Heavy rainfall and dangerous storm surge are forecast to cause widespread flooding across the eastern United States through Monday. Damaging wind gusts will spread inland across Alabama and up the Appalachian Mountains.
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