Philippines on alert for tropical threat following powerful earthquake

A tropical system attempting to organize in the Philippine Sea will bring the risk for flooding to parts of the southern Philippines this weekend.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms east of Palau will drift toward the west as the week progresses and could become a tropical depression or tropical storm.

If this threat becomes a tropical storm it will be given the name Phanfone by the Japan Meteorological Agency. In the Philippines the storm would be known as Ursula.

While development is possible by Wednesday or Thursday, impacts to the Philippines are not expected until this weekend.

Satellite animation showing clusters of showers and thunderstorms between Palau and the Philippines on Wednesday night, local time. (RAMMB/CIRA)

In the shorter term, Palau will be at risk for daily showers and thunderstorms with downpours capable of producing localized flooding.

This risk will be highest from late Wednesday to Friday as the storm attempts to develop near or just west of Palau.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible across Palau this weekend, but the risk for flooding will shift into the southern Philippines.

Prior to the arrival of the potential tropical system, daily showers and thunderstorms will be scattered across Mindanao and southern Visayas. The heaviest downpours are forecast for eastern locations.

The risk for heavy rainfall across Mindanao may cause further issues for areas still recovering from a deadly 6.8 magnitude earthquake that struck the region on December 14.

Total rainfall of 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) is expected across much of northern and eastern Mindanao through this weekend with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 300 mm (12 inches). The remainder of Mindanao can expect rainfall of 25-75 mm (1-3 inches).

Widespread travel disruptions could occur due to the risk of significant flooding on Saturday and Sunday. There will also be an increased risk for mudslides during this time.

Locations across southern Visayas, including Cebu, will be at risk for 75-150 mm (3-6 inches) of rainfall through Sunday with up to 200 mm (8 inches) in Bohol, Leyte and southern Cebu.

Downpours will lessen across Mindanao and Visayas early next week as heavy rainfall shifts into Palawan.

The potential tropical threat will depart the Philippines by the middle of next week and may bring impacts to Vietnam in the days after Christmas.