Caribbean Sea may spawn next named tropical storm
The waters of the western Caribbean remain ripe for new development as the last month of the Atlantic hurricane season approaches.
Tropical Storm Patty may form at the end of October or beginning of November, but if it does, where will it go?
A new tropical threat is expected to emerge in the Caribbean Sea as the calendar flips to November, the last official month of the hurricane season.
"As we move later into the tropical season, we typically look closer to home for tropical development. The areas of concern are typically focused in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast coast of the United States," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
Forecasters are focusing on the western and central Caribbean Sea which are expected to spawn the next tropical threat. There is a high chance of a tropical depression or storm forming in these waters heading into the early part of November.
"I know there will be showers and thunderstorms in this zone this week. The question is the wind shear. If there is low wind shear, which we expect, I think we will be getting a tropical depression or storm to form," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
Waters remain warm over the Caribbean, both at the surface and deep below. The warmth provides an environment that fuels tropical storms.
"This potential tropical development is partially the result of the Central American Gyre which is more active at the start and end of the tropical season," DaSilva said.
As a result of this gyre, downpours are expected to be numerous across the Caribbean this week and can result in life-threatening conditions such as flash floods and mudslides regardless of whether there is a named tropical system or not.
Tropical storms that organize from this gyre can be slow to evolve, resulting in days of stormy conditions and rough seas in the Caribbean before any official designation of a depression or storm. Even though development may be slow to evolve, intensification of a tropical depression into a tropical storm or hurricane can happen quickly. Oscar, for example, rapidly intensified from a tropical rainstorm to a hurricane in one day.
"From a climatological standpoint, tropical storms that form in this area late in October and early in November tend to track into Central America or possibly to the north-northeast toward Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas. However, a track into Florida or the southeastern U.S. mainland is not out of the question at this early juncture," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
In addition to the western Caribbean, there is a low risk of tropical development in the northern Caribbean late this week and into next weekend, as a cluster of showers and thunderstorms may organize.
AccuWeather experts urge residents throughout the Caribbean, Mexico and the southeastern U.S. to remain alert for potential tropical impacts into the month of November.
Following Oscar, the next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Patty.
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