Atlantic hurricane season comes alive with a tropical threat emerging
AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking an area for tropical development off Africa as Atlantic hurricane season begins its historical surge and El Niño intensifies.
Chances for tropical development are ramping up in the Atlantic this week, and there’s a possibility impacts on the U.S. could be ahead.
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring one area in the Atlantic where storms could develop, coinciding with the time of year when tropical activity begins to surge in late August.
A well-organized tropical wave recently moved off the western coast of Africa and has a high risk of development.
Large tropical wave from Africa bears watching in long-range
A large tropical wave that moved off the western coast of Africa appeared more organized than most waves to emerge from the continent so far this season.
Dozens of tropical waves move westward across Africa and emerge over the Atlantic each year. During the peak of hurricane season from late August through September, a wave can move off the African coast every two to four days, but only a small percentage develop into tropical depressions.
The tropical wave will encounter pockets of dry and moist air, along with areas of stronger and weaker wind shear.
A persistent zone of moderate to strong wind shear and dry air has extended across the Caribbean this season. These hostile conditions contributed to the demise of several tropical disturbances in recent weeks and are expected to persist this week.
If the tropical wave remains organized this week and passes northeast of the Leeward Islands late this weekend or early next week, conditions could become more favorable for it to strengthen into a tropical storm or hurricane north of Puerto Rico.
"The wave moving westward across the Atlantic has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression later this week," DaSilva said. "If it develops and strengthens, it will have a greater chance of turning northward."
Peak of Atlantic hurricane season approaches as El Niño intensifies
Atlantic tropical activity historically increases sharply from late August into early September before reaching its climatological peak around Sept. 10.
"The Atlantic is overdue for its first hurricane of the season," AccuWeather Meteorologist Jesse Ferrell said. "We typically see the first hurricane develop before Aug. 1."
Excluding Hurricane Alex, which formed unusually early in January 2016, the average date of the Atlantic season’s first hurricane over the past 10 years is July 27.
During the satellite era that began in the 1960s, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season occurred on Sept. 11, a record shared by Gustav in 2002 and Humberto in 2013. However, in 1914, no hurricanes were documented that season.
However, every hurricane season is different and can be strongly influenced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. This recurring climate pattern involves changes in tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures and the atmosphere above it.
When tropical Pacific waters remain cooler than average, La Niña conditions can favor increased Atlantic tropical activity. When the waters remain warmer than average, El Niño conditions can increase wind shear over the Atlantic, often limiting tropical development while supporting greater activity in parts of the Pacific.
La Niña and El Niño events vary in intensity. The current El Niño could become one of the strongest in a lifetime, potentially affecting tropical activity in the Atlantic and Pacific as well as winter storm patterns across the western United States.
"It will be very hard for anything to get into the Caribbean this year due to strong El Niño conditions producing strong wind shear in the region," DaSilva said. "I think this El Niño has the potential to be the strongest on record or at least since 1950. If this occurs, the end of the tropical season could be less busy overall."
El Niño 2026-2027 could top the past five record El Niños, according to data dating back to 1850.
"One flip side to this is the water temperature," DaSilva cautioned. "Sea-surface temperatures remain very warm across most of the basin. If a storm can find a pocket of lower wind shear, it could develop quickly. This is why it is very important for residents in any hurricane-prone area to stay alert."
The current El Niño could persist through the winter and well into 2027.
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