AccuWeather’s Week-in-Advance Forecasts and Day-of Warnings for Plains Widespread Severe Weather Issued Before and More Accurate Than Other Known Sources
The most impactful 2-day tornado outbreak in at least several years erupted from Nebraska to Texas on April 26 and 27, 2024.
Drone video shows destruction from the Sulphur, Oklahoma tornado early on April 28, 2024. The tornado hit the night before. (Brandon Clement)
AccuWeather customers and users were better prepared due to AccuWeather's forecasts that were provided farther in advance than those from any other known source, accurately conveying the significant risk of tornadoes resulting from a very volatile weather pattern. AccuWeather was the only known source to provide a week of advance notice that "the next severe weather outbreak" could occur between April 26 and 29. AccuWeather forecasts were also first to pinpoint the area at greatest risk on Saturday, April 27, doing so two days ahead of the National Weather Service's (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC).
• RELATED STORY: More than 100 tornadoes, including an EF4, struck the nation's heartland
Months to a Week Prior to the Outbreak
On April 19, a week prior to the 2-day tornado outbreak, AccuWeather was the only known source to:
• Correctly predict that "the spring severe weather season will quickly shift into high gear with multiple days of favorable conditions for tornadoes in the final days of April."
• Accurately forecast that "the next big severe weather outbreak" could occur between April 26 and 29 across the Plains.
• Predict that the risk of "tornadoes and severe thunderstorms will escalate as 'dangerous pattern' evolves."
• Alert consumers through graphics, new stories, blogs, and media advisories that "widespread severe weather" was expected April 29-28.
• Alert business customers using the Storm Potential Outlook (SPO) that the Plains were at risk for severe thunderstorms.
• Correctly predict that "there may be multiple rounds of stormy weather" and specifically mention cities such as Dallas, Texas, and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, as areas of concern.
• AccuWeather's Spring Forecast, published on January 31, 2024, nearly 3 months in advance, accurately predicted that "severe weather will shift and expand across the Plains through April and into May, encompassing the traditional "Tornado Alley."
Days to Hours Prior to the Outbreak
AccuWeather communicated the increased concern for a severe weather outbreak before other known sources including:
• On April 25, pinpointing the area at greatest risk on April 26 by denoting a "high risk" across Iowa while the SPC was predicting just an "enhanced" risk.
• On April 25, pinpointing the area at greatest risk on April 27 by denoting a "high risk" for severe thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas, two days prior to the SPC upgrading their forecast to a "moderate risk".
• Additionally, on April 26, AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologists issued an AccuWeather AlertTM for Tornado Threat for central and eastern Nebraska and western Iowa almost 5 hours BEFORE the government and all other sources issued a tornado watch. The government and all other sources only issued a tornado watch after tornadoes had already been reported in central Nebraska.
As the Outbreak was Unfolding
AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologists provided more advance notice than the National Weather Service including:
• One of the several areas near Des Moines, IA that was impacted was the Maffit Reservoir southwest of the city. On the evening of April 26, AccuWeather's Storm Warning Meteorologists issued a life-saving SkyGuard® Tornado Warning which provided 24 minutes of advance notice BEFORE the tornado impacted the area. As has been the case in many other situations, AccuWeather issued the tornado warning BEFORE any other known source and was able to provide 22 minutes precious minutes of ADDITIONAL time to get to safe shelter.
• AccuWeather For Business customers were also best prepared for a quickly developing EF2 tornado which tracked over the Pleasant Hill area near Des Moines, IA. In this case, AccuWeather correctly predicted that a storm that had previously produced a tornado was still a threat and maintained a tornado warning for the area. In sharp contrast, other weather sources and businesses dependent upon the National Weather Service’s Tornado Warning for the area would have received an all-clear message at 8:45 pm CT stating: “The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.” When the tornado tracked over the area, the NWS issued a new Tornado Warning but it provided no advance notice – being issued at the same time the tornado struck.
• AccuWeather customers benefited from the best warning which enabled them to stay in the shelter during the duration of this dangerous, quickly evolving episode as opposed to coming out of the shelter temporarily to only turn around and come back to the shelter almost immediately, which in itself can result in injuries due to people having to frantically move to shelter.
• Attention Healthcare Professionals: REGISTER for the AccuWeather For Healthcare Facilities webinar on May 15, 2024, at 1 p.m. ET. SIGN UP HERE
AccuWeather's SkyGuard Severe Weather Warnings
AccuWeather SkyGuard® severe weather warnings protect people and facilities in emergencies, communicate instantly with a high level of accuracy through multiple channels and methods of dissemination, all customized to the client's needs. SkyGuard warnings provide the most accurate, proactive notification of impending threats to specific locations when severe weather threatens human lives, facilities, or business operations – 24/7, 365 days a year. AccuWeather's team of expert meteorologists develop SkyGuard warnings specifically for the severe weather threats and locations that matter to each client, including tornadoes, hail, flooding, ice, black ice, high winds, lightning, and much more. SkyGuard warnings are backed by always on-call expert consultants to help businesses and institutions make early, actionable decisions.
AccuWeather continues to deliver invaluable, life-saving warnings around severe weather events, such as tornadoes, with an average of 16 minutes advance notice compared to government warnings that provide an average of 8 minutes notice. Minimizing false alarms has only added to the credibility and value of AccuWeather's life-saving warnings when the threat is real.
Talk to an AccuWeather expert today and become better prepared for all weather risks.
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