Farmers could see record corn output this year, which could be a problem
By
John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Apr 2, 2020 8:00 PM EST
A combine unloads corn to a grain cart, during a harvesting demonstration at the Husker Harvest Days farm show in Grand Island, Neb., Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2019. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)
Surprising – and potentially record-setting – projections were released in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) March Agricultural Survey.
The survey calls for an estimated 97 million acres of corn to be planted by U.S. farmers this season. The only time since 1937 that U.S. farmers have planted at least 97 million acres of corn was 2012 (97.3).
“I have trouble believing farmers are going to plant 97 million acres,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist and commodities analyst Dave Samuhel. “Why would they plant so many acres this year when the price isn’t great and ethanol demand isn’t there? Forty percent of corn grown goes to ethanol.”
AccuWeather, however, is going to raise its prediction for U.S. corn production in 2020 from 15.486 billion bushels to 15.735 billion bushels, with the increase due to a slightly higher estimate for acres planted (95.5 million) and harvested (88.4 million) at an unchanged yield of 178 bushels per acre.
AccuWeather’s projected total would be a U.S. record for annual corn production, topping 15.15 billion bushels in 2016. Last year, the final total was 13.692 billion bushels.
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on April 9. Its estimates in March for corn was 15.458 billion bushels.
The price of corn has dropped 9 percent since the start of March to its lowest price in more than a year, while U.S. ethanol plant production has dropped 20 percent and U.S. retail gas prices have fallen 19.5 percent in a little over a month.
“Now is when the farmers are making their decisions and then planting, and it just doesn’t seem the demand will be there, with the lessened demand for ethanol,” Samuhel said.
“So that 97 million acres is probably too high, especially if it stays wet a little longer into April – that would cut into that estimate,” Samuhel said. “The next week or two does look a little less rainy from Missouri to Ohio, which is where farmers start to plant in early to mid-April.”
An option for farmers to plant may well be soybeans; their price has risen 7 percent since March 17. AccuWeather is predicting U.S. soybean production also will see a strong comeback, with production estimated to be 4.258 billion bushels, based on 83.5 million acres harvested with 51 bushels per acre.
That would be a 19.6 percent increase from 2019’s total of 3.558 billion bushels, which was the lowest total since 2013 (3.357 billion bushels). Such an increase would be the largest year-over-year improvement since 2004 (27.3 percent increase from 2003).
“We expect more soybean acres to be planted than in 2019 but still less than farmers were planting in the middle of the last decade,” Samuhel said.
Based on the USDA numbers, though, another scenario is possible for corn, and it’s not ideal for farmers.
“If it turns out to be a great growing year – if everything went perfect, it’s good weather and they really do plant 97 million acres – this could be a 16-billion-bushel year,” said AccuWeather commodities consultant Jim Candor. “There’s a potential for a real glut of corn, and that would make things worse for the farmers.”
AccuWeather is predicting U.S. wheat production will be 1.945 billion bushels, which is slightly about the USDA estimate of 1.92 billion bushels, while for cotton, AccuWeather forecasts production of 20.66 million bales compared to the USDA estimate of 19.8 million bales.
The USDA’s March Agricultural Survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of approximately 80,000 farm operators selected from a list of producers that ensures all operations in the United States have a chance to be selected, according to the USDA. Data from operators was collected by mail, internet, telephone, or personal interview to obtain information on crop acreage intentions for the 2020 crop year and this data was reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
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News / Business
Farmers could see record corn output this year, which could be a problem
By John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer
Published Apr 2, 2020 8:00 PM EST
A combine unloads corn to a grain cart, during a harvesting demonstration at the Husker Harvest Days farm show in Grand Island, Neb., Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2019. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)
Surprising – and potentially record-setting – projections were released in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) March Agricultural Survey.
The survey calls for an estimated 97 million acres of corn to be planted by U.S. farmers this season. The only time since 1937 that U.S. farmers have planted at least 97 million acres of corn was 2012 (97.3).
“I have trouble believing farmers are going to plant 97 million acres,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist and commodities analyst Dave Samuhel. “Why would they plant so many acres this year when the price isn’t great and ethanol demand isn’t there? Forty percent of corn grown goes to ethanol.”
AccuWeather, however, is going to raise its prediction for U.S. corn production in 2020 from 15.486 billion bushels to 15.735 billion bushels, with the increase due to a slightly higher estimate for acres planted (95.5 million) and harvested (88.4 million) at an unchanged yield of 178 bushels per acre.
AccuWeather’s projected total would be a U.S. record for annual corn production, topping 15.15 billion bushels in 2016. Last year, the final total was 13.692 billion bushels.
CLICK HERE FOR THE FREE ACCUWEATHER APP
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on April 9. Its estimates in March for corn was 15.458 billion bushels.
The price of corn has dropped 9 percent since the start of March to its lowest price in more than a year, while U.S. ethanol plant production has dropped 20 percent and U.S. retail gas prices have fallen 19.5 percent in a little over a month.
“Now is when the farmers are making their decisions and then planting, and it just doesn’t seem the demand will be there, with the lessened demand for ethanol,” Samuhel said.
“So that 97 million acres is probably too high, especially if it stays wet a little longer into April – that would cut into that estimate,” Samuhel said. “The next week or two does look a little less rainy from Missouri to Ohio, which is where farmers start to plant in early to mid-April.”
An option for farmers to plant may well be soybeans; their price has risen 7 percent since March 17. AccuWeather is predicting U.S. soybean production also will see a strong comeback, with production estimated to be 4.258 billion bushels, based on 83.5 million acres harvested with 51 bushels per acre.
That would be a 19.6 percent increase from 2019’s total of 3.558 billion bushels, which was the lowest total since 2013 (3.357 billion bushels). Such an increase would be the largest year-over-year improvement since 2004 (27.3 percent increase from 2003).
“We expect more soybean acres to be planted than in 2019 but still less than farmers were planting in the middle of the last decade,” Samuhel said.
Based on the USDA numbers, though, another scenario is possible for corn, and it’s not ideal for farmers.
“If it turns out to be a great growing year – if everything went perfect, it’s good weather and they really do plant 97 million acres – this could be a 16-billion-bushel year,” said AccuWeather commodities consultant Jim Candor. “There’s a potential for a real glut of corn, and that would make things worse for the farmers.”
AccuWeather is predicting U.S. wheat production will be 1.945 billion bushels, which is slightly about the USDA estimate of 1.92 billion bushels, while for cotton, AccuWeather forecasts production of 20.66 million bales compared to the USDA estimate of 19.8 million bales.
The USDA’s March Agricultural Survey is a probability survey that includes a sample of approximately 80,000 farm operators selected from a list of producers that ensures all operations in the United States have a chance to be selected, according to the USDA. Data from operators was collected by mail, internet, telephone, or personal interview to obtain information on crop acreage intentions for the 2020 crop year and this data was reviewed for reasonableness and consistency with historical estimates.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo