Weather and Health Care Operations: How Hospitals Use Forecasts to Plan Staffing

Beyond day-to-day staffing, weather forecasting also informs a more fundamental form of planning: surge capacity, which refers to a hospital's ability to expand beyond its normal operating capacity to care for a significantly increased patient load.

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Weather and health often go hand-in-hand. Extreme and severe weather moving into an area can affect hospital and healthcare facility staffing, supply chain and inventory, as well as patient admissions.

Floods and storms disrupt hospital and pre-hospital services through infrastructure damage and road closures, creating a double burden: patient volumes spike at the same time that the ability to deliver care is put at risk. Ambulances struggle to reach facilities, staff members cannot get to work, supply chains are disrupted, and power outages threaten life-saving equipment. For hospitals, the stakes of being caught unprepared are high.

When hospital administrators develop weather-driven planning, staffing is usually the first factor considered. Labor accounts for the largest portion of hospital costs, and staffing is also the most time-sensitive challenge. Scheduling decisions typically need to be made days in advance, which means hospitals need demand forecasts that extend far enough ahead to be useful.

The specific staffing adjustments depend on the nature of the anticipated weather. A forecast for an extended heat wave prompts hospitals to increase emergency department and internal medicine staffing, stock up on IV fluids and cooling equipment, and coordinate with public health agencies. A major winter storm requires a different kind of preparation, including monitoring road conditions.

From reactive to proactive

For many hospitals, surge management is largely reactive. A snowstorm would hit, patients would arrive, and administrators would scramble to call in extra staff, open additional beds, and redirect resources. That model is increasingly giving way to a proactive one — where hospitals look days ahead, integrate weather data with operational models, and begin preparation well before a single additional patient walks through the door.

Severe weather adds another dimension.  AccuWeather SkyGuard® Severe Weather Warnings better protect people and property when severe weather threatens. Each warning is communicated instantly with AccuWeather’s proven Superior Accuracy™ through multiple channels and dissemination methods, all customized to your specific needs.  

Moving patients to a safe space requires time, and having extra lead time to make that decision is critical. SkyGuard clients can receive a Reviewed Tornado Notification to let them know there is a storm in the area, but it won’t impact that particular facility. That’s as important as getting the lead time when you do need to take shelter.

Surge Capacity Planning

Beyond day-to-day staffing, weather forecasting also informs a more fundamental form of planning: surge capacity, which refers to a hospital's ability to expand beyond its normal operating capacity to care for a significantly increased patient load.

Effective surge capacity management is particularly consequential in preparing for and responding to demand spikes. Events that cause surges — whether pandemics, natural disasters, or extreme weather — often bring patients with similar characteristics and needs all at once, placing specific departments or services under concentrated pressure.

AccuWeather’s SkyGuard® Severe Weather Warnings

Be proactive with AccuWeather SkyGuard® Severe Weather Warnings with proven Superior Accuracy™ AccuWeather’s SkyGuard warnings deliver hyperlocal, site-specific alerts and warnings with often more advance notice, before severe weather hits, giving you more time to prepare. 

As an example of AccuWeather’s proven Superior Accuracy™, for tornadoes, on average, AccuWeather provides 16 minutes of advance notice compared to an average of only eight minutes from the National Weather Service. In some cases, we often provide much more advance notice. 

Businesses that invest in AccuWeather’s SkyGuard Severe Weather Warnings also get access to a team of expert severe weather meteorologists, 24x7x365. AccuWeather does not just send you a warning; we confirm that you have received it, so you can make the best weather-impacted decisions for your business every time. 

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