Tropical Rainstorm Near the Texas Coast Forecast to Become Arthur
A tropical rainstorm that has been gathering downpours along the Texas coast is forecast to evolve into Tropical Storm Arthur. Regardless, torrential rain will lead to life-threatening flooding in the Southeast.
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This image was captured on Tuesday morning, June 16, 2026, and shows blossoming downpours and thunderstorms along the Texas and northeast Mexico coasts. This activity is likely a precursor to tropical development over the northwest Gulf. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
A mass of showers and thunderstorms that has been sprawled across Texas and northern Mexico in recent days has consolidated into a tropical rainstorm on Tuesday and is forecast to become Tropical Storm Arthur by early Wednesday. Life-threatening flooding, property damage and disruptions to commerce and travel may unfold as inches of rain pour down, regardless of official designation.
The gathering of moisture originates from former eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Cristina, a tropical wave of low pressure from Africa, a stalled weather front and the jet stream.
This tropical rainstorm will track northeastward along the Texas coast into Thursday. AccuWeather is the only known source to use the term "tropical rainstorm," drawing additional attention to tropical systems that may not officially have a name but pose a flooding risk.
"The key to whether this tropical rainstorm will focus enough wind energy to become a named tropical storm Arthur will hinge on its proximity to warm waters of the Gulf," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.
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For the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to declare a tropical storm has formed and assign a name, the entity must have a defined circulation with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater. At 10 a.m. CDT on Tuesday, the NHC has issued a Potential Tropical Cyclone for the area of interest and is projecting the storm to become Arthur on Wednesday.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Sargent, Texas, to Morgan City, Louisiana.
"While tropical storms have formed over swampy areas along the Gulf, ideally, the center of this rainstorm would have to be over the Gulf for further organization and strengthening," DaSilva said.
Tropical storms need a constant source of warm, moist air to form, maintain intensity or strengthen.
Because of the forecast short duration near the Gulf, a rapid intensification to a powerful hurricane is unlikely. However, the concern among AccuWeather meteorologists about this setup has always been torrential rain and flooding.
The tropical rainstorm, or potentially Tropical Storm Arthur, will enhance the moisture and areas of rain already in place. So much rain can pour down (potentially 2-3 inches per hour in extreme cases) and easily overwhelm storm drains, leading to rapidly rising water on city streets and highways.
In terms of total rainfall, a broad zone exists where 4-8 inches of rain is forecast from South Texas to eastern Alabama. Within this zone, a substantial area is forecast to receive 8-12 inches of rain over a multiple-day period, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 20 inches.
Economic Impact and Threat to Businesses
Tropical storms, hurricanes and flooding can have a damaging economic impact on businesses, including physical damage, supply chain disruptions and lost revenue.
These severe storms not only affect homes, they also significantly impact businesses and their infrastructure. From small mom-and-pop shops to large corporations, hurricanes can devastate all types of companies, causing property damage, disrupting supply chains, and leading to lost revenue.
Physical Property Damage
The most immediate and obvious economic impact of tropical storms and hurricanes on businesses is physical property damage. High winds, storm surges, and flooding can all cause significant damage to buildings, equipment, and inventory. Small businesses, which may lack the resources to repair or replace damaged property, can be devastated. Companies affected by hurricanes may need to close, adding to their financial losses.
Disruptions to Supply Chains
Even if a business can quickly reopen after a tropical storm or hurricane, it may face significant economic challenges. Disruptions to supply chains can make it difficult for businesses to obtain needed materials. Power outages and transportation disruptions can also hinder businesses' ability to receive and ship products. These factors can lead to production and delivery delays, causing lost revenue and damaging a company's reputation.
Loss of Customers
Another economic impact of tropical storms and hurricanes on businesses is the loss of customers. In the aftermath of a hurricane, many people may prioritize rebuilding their homes and lives over spending money on non-essential goods and services. This can be particularly challenging for small businesses that heavily rely on local customers. Also, companies dependent on tourism may experience a significant drop in visitors after a hurricane.
Insurance Shortfalls
Insurance can help businesses recover from the economic impact of hurricanes, but it is not always a solution for all damages. In some cases, insurance policies may not cover all the hurricane-caused damage, leaving businesses responsible for some costs. Insurance claims can also take time, delaying much-needed funds for repairs and recovery.
>>READ MORE: Hurricane Facts vs. Fiction: What You Need to Know>>
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