AccuWeather’s 2026 Wildfire Season Forecast projects 5.5 to 8 million acres will burn across the United States this year as drought, extreme heat, wind and dry vegetation increase wildfire danger across the West. While the total number of wildfires may be lower than in 2025, AccuWeather meteorologists warn that fires that ignite are likely to spread faster, grow larger and become more destructive.

The highest wildfire risk is expected across the interior Northwest, the Rockies, Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, Nevada, Idaho and western Montana. California’s wildfire danger is also expected to increase through the summer, especially in interior valleys, foothills and lower-elevation areas.

Smoke from major wildfires could spread across the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast, leading to reduced air quality and hazy skies for millions of people.

AccuWeather’s forecasts and warnings with proven Superior Accuracy^TM provide life-saving Wildfire Proximity Alerts and Air Quality Alerts that warn businesses before conditions become dangerous.

Key takeaways

• AccuWeather forecasts 65,000 to 80,000 wildfires across the U.S. in 2026, with an estimated 5.5 to 8 million acres are expected to burn nationwide. Wildfire smoke could impact air quality far beyond fire zones, including the Midwest and Northeast, which is why AccuWeather's exclusive Air Quality Alerts are essential

• Wildfires this year are expected to become larger and harder to contain, with drought, above-average heat and below-average snowpack are increasing wildfire risk

• California, the Rockies and the interior Northwest face the highest threat, while Canada is projected to see 11 to 15 million acres burn in 2026

AccuWeather 2026 Wildfire Forecast: Larger, More Dangerous Fires Expected Across the West

AccuWeather’s 2026 Wildfire Season Forecast predicts a challenging season across the western United States, with conditions favoring larger and more destructive fires despite a potentially lower overall number of ignitions.

AccuWeather’s forecasts and warnings with proven Superior Accuracy^TM provide often more advance notice, provide greater detail and are communicated more clearly than all other sources.

Highest Wildfire Risk Areas in 2026

AccuWeather long-range experts identified the interior Northwest and the Rockies as the regions facing the highest wildfire danger through summer and fall.

The broadest wildfire threat stretches from:

Arizona
New Mexico
Utah
Nevada
Idaho
Western Montana
Parts of the Pacific Northwest

Hot temperatures, drought conditions and below-average snowpack are expected to dry out vegetation and increase fire fuel across these regions.

Fires that develop in remote forested terrain may grow quickly during windy and dry conditionsAccuWeather’s expert meteorologists issue wildfire proximity alerts, giving businesses more time to make the best decisions before containment becomes difficult.

>> AccuWeather SkyGuard® Severe Weather Warnings better protect people and property when severe weather threatens. Each warning is communicated instantly with AccuWeather’s proven Superior Accuracy™ through multiple channels and dissemination methods, all customized to your specific needs.

California Wildfire Risk Expected to Increase This Summer

California’s wildfire threat is expected to intensify as the summer progresses, particularly across interior valleys, foothills and lower elevations where grasses and brush are drying out rapidly.

Late-season storms brought some moisture to the state, but not enough to eliminate drought concerns. Instead, the rainfall temporarily boosted vegetation growth, which could later become additional wildfire fuel as conditions turn hotter and drier.

AccuWeather forecasts 500,000 to 750,000 acres could burn in California during 2026. By comparison:

525,223 acres burned in California during 2025
The historical average is 1,002,822 acres annually

Wildfire Smoke Impacts

Wind can transport smoke from large wildfires hundreds to thousands of miles away, reducing air quality and even slightly lowering daytime temperatures under a hazy sky.

“Winds high in the atmosphere can carry wildfire smoke far from the western half of the country and western Canada over the Midwest and into the Great Lakes and Northeast,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said. “We could see rounds of hazy and smoky sky conditions later this year over cities in the Midwest and Northeast.”

AccuWeather long-range experts predict 11 to 15 million acres to burn across Canada in 2026. While lower than last year’s staggering 22 million acres, it remains well above the historical average of 5.7 million acres.

2026 Wildfire Season Forecast Numbers

U.S. wildfire forecast for 2026

65,000 to 80,000 wildfires expected
5.5 to 8 million acres projected to burn

Comparison to 2025

77,850 wildfires occurred in 2025
5.1 million acres burned in 2025

Historical averages

Average annual wildfire count: 68,707
Average annual acres burned: 7 million

Action Steps for Residents and Businesses

Preparation before wildfire season peaks can help reduce risks and improve safety during fast-moving wildfire emergencies. Know your evacuation routes and have emergency supplies and important items and documents ready in case you need to leave quickly.

Update emergency response and evacuation plans
Review backup communication systems
Prepare for potential power outages and smoke-related disruptions
Protect outdoor equipment and facilities from fire hazards
Monitor wildfire forecasts and air quality impacts for employee safety

AccuWeather experts emphasize that wildfire preparedness is important even outside traditionally high-risk regions, especially as smoke impacts and fire conditions continue to expand across North America.

AccuWeather Wildfire Proximity Alerts

Wildfires can travel at speeds of up to 14 mph, nearly twice the speed of the average runner. When minutes matter, AccuWeather's Wildfire Proximity Alerts are the best solution proven to deliver site-specific warnings as soon as fire is detected within 10 miles of a client's asset location.

Unlike government alerts that cover broad geographic areas, AccuWeather's warnings are pinpointed to each client's exact facilities, providing often more advance notice and more actionable insights than any other known source. AccuWeather's expert meteorologists monitor client assets 24x7x365 and are available for immediate one-on-one consultation the moment a threat emerges.

If you are not using AccuWeather Wildfire Proximity Alerts, your employees and facilities may not receive the earliest, most accurate warning available. AccuWeather's Superior Accuracy™ and proven track record of providing more advance notice than all other sources means AccuWeather clients are better prepared, better protected, and better positioned to make the right decisions before it is too late.

AccuWeather Air Quality Alerts

As wildfire smoke spreads across North America, air quality threats will extend far beyond fire zones, endangering employees, customers and operations in cities and regions hundreds of miles from any active fire.

AccuWeather's meteorologists monitor client asset locations around the clock and deliver site-specific, proactive Air Quality Alerts when levels reach dangerous levels.

Delivered through the AccuWeather SkyGuard^® Severe Weather Warnings with with proven Superior Accuracy ™ via the AccuWeather For Business Portal and Mobile App, and can be integrated directly into a company's standard operating procedures.

AccuWeather's Air Quality Alerts go beyond reactive monitoring; they often give businesses the more advance notice they need to better protect people, reduce liability, and make the best weather-impacted decisions.

Why take unnecessary risks? Contact AccuWeather today to get AccuWeather's SkyGuard® Severe Weather Warnings to better prepare your business and keep your employees safer for all severe weather threats.

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