Winter 2009-2010 Forecasts Abound...
Our official U.S. Winter Forecast will be issued next week but there are already several things out there that can help you plan your season. Here's a list and a brief description made-up by me, including a quote on El Niño, which could have a profound effect on the forecast. Meteorologists are taking a guess at what the El Niño status will be come winter, and comparing that to past winter seasons with similar conditions.
Joe Bastardi's Detailed U.S. Winter 2009-2010 Forecast: (NOT OUT YET):
This forecast will be released to Joe's Energy Clients on 10/12 and will drive a less technical version to AccuWeather.com on around mid-week. On El Niño: Joe said in his blog today: "NOT MUCH OF A NINO. The latest MEI value has dropped to .75. For my purposes, this has weakened to less than a Nino category for the overall global pattern as we are not even at.5 The fact is there are enough cold signals to balance out what warmth there is."
MeteoMadness Winter Forecast (Henry Margusity @ AccuWeather.com) (10/05/09):
DISCLAIMER: This is not an official forecast: This is Henry's best guess at how things will shape up this winter and most notably predicts doom and gloom (or yea! if you like snow) for the mid-Atlantic and lower New England. He also predicts frequent ice storms in Tennessee and North Carolina, and that California will be dry (which disagrees with Ken's forecast below) and warns of possible severe weather outbreaks in the Florida area.
On El Niño:"I am not riding the wave of a major El Niño across the country. The SOI values this summer have been bouncing around neutral. so one could argue either way that we are in a weak El Niño or in neutral. With that said, I based my winter forecast around the idea that we will stay around the weak to neutral El Niño through the winter months."
Ken Clark @ AccuWeather.com Western U.S. Winter Forecast (10/05/09):
DISCLAIMER: This is not an official forecast: Ken covers the West Coast and says that, even though south & central California may have a normal or even above-normal rain/snow this winter (note this differs from Henry's forecast), the water woes won't end, because they are long-term and involve things other than the weather. On El Niño:"Since June, however, water temperatures have shown no further important warming and El Nino remains weak. While I do have some concerns about the current weak state of El Nino I feel relatively comfortable with coming up with my forecast."
Brett Anderson's Alaska/Canada Winter Forecast (9/15/09):
DISCLAIMER: This is not an official forecast: Here Brett comments on what the European model is saying through March. Generally, warm in the west and cold in the east. On El Niño: "Obviously, the eventual strength of El Nino, if there still is one by this winter, will be one of the key factors in whether or not this model's forecast works out."
NOAA's Seasonal Forecast (9/17/09):
NOAA hasn't issued anything official yet, and may not, but does carry seasonal forecasts (archived here: Temp | Precip) and El Nino status documents (in handy non-web format) year-round.
Typically hard to understand, NOAA officially predicts "Equal Chances Of Above Normal, Normal or Below Normal Temperatures and Precipitation" for the Northeast. It's your guess what that means but I believe this is NOT a forecast of "Normal"; they are saying it's un-forcastable at this point. They do believe it will be warm in the Northern Plains and cool in the Southeast. Dry in the Ohio Valley & Northwest, wet along the southern tier of states. On El Niño: "El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010." This is at odds with most of the AccuWeather.com forecasts I have seen, for what that's worth.
The Old Farmer's Almanac Winter Forecast (9/10/09):
Who is the Old Farmer? You didn't hear it from me here or here. To obtain this forecast online you have to type in a city to get a region. For the I-95 corridor from Richmond to Boston it predicts colder (especially in January) and drier than normal. On El Niño: They don't mention it specifically but the Associated Press says of their general forecast of a cooler nation this winter "That conflicts with the long-range forecast by the National Weather Service, which is calling for warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the country because of an El Nino system in the tropical Pacific Ocean."
The Farmer's Almanac Winter Forecast (9/3/09):
Not to be confused with the Old Farmer who works upstairs from me, this outlet predicts an average winter for the mid-Atlantic and (another) cool & snowy New England season. It calls southern Cali dry but predicts "very cold & snowy" in the Northern Plains and "Mild & Wet" in the Southeast. On El Niño: No mention.
DISCLAIMER: "Winter" may be defined differently by the different links above, watch your dates. "Meteorological Winter" is Dec/Jan/Feb while "Calendar Winter" is late Dec. to late March. I personally consider winter to be October to April because that encompasses the possibility of winter weather at my location but hey, I ain't makin' a forecast.
COMMENTS: If you're plan on posting a comment below, don't bore me with unsubstantiated claims about past forecasts busting, or claims that the 2009-2010 winter is already over (sounds silly but it happens every time). If you do, it ain't getting posted.
Comments (17):
Angelica:
Hi Jesse, I am planning a ski trip to northern MI. Do you know where i can get the snowfall averages for the last two/three El Nino winters? I want to pick the month where i may have a better chance of good snowfall numbers. Thank you.
FROM JESSE: Hi Angelica, try this NCDC site or the NWS-Marquette office.
Posted by Angelica | November 10, 2009 12:54 PM
robert stack:
I live in DEEP-SOUTH OF INDIANA and the ice storm last winter hit hard
I just hope the predictions for LOTS more is true!!!!!
Posted by robert stack | November 5, 2009 10:01 PM
chasity:
I am in northeastern arkansas and we had the huge Icestorm last winter and now we are in danger again.
Posted by chasity | October 28, 2009 9:47 PM
Heidy:
Can you please E-mail me or post it here & tell me whats the weather prediction for south west Arkansas the week of Valentines, Feb 14-20,2010
Thanks, HHH
FROM JESSE: Hi, forecasts that far in advance cannot be made reliably; put in a zipcode on this page to see average temperatures for the month.
Posted by Heidy | October 8, 2009 10:51 AM
Dave:
Jesse, don't know if you have any thoughts on this, but....why is it the meteorologists at the NWS think an El Nino condition will exist throughout winter and Accuweather does not?
I'm just curious why the interpretations are so different?
Posted by Dave | October 7, 2009 12:12 PM
CC:
The forecasts for a very cold & snowy winter do not make me happy. I worry too much about the homeless & stray animals to really enjoy a nice snowstorm as I once did. Oh well I'll just hope for the best & follow the forecasts on a day to day basis.
Posted by CC | October 7, 2009 9:48 AM
Linda:
I'm in Maryland....PLEASE be right about the snow! My snowblower is starting to rust from not being used! LOL!!
Posted by Linda | October 6, 2009 1:20 PM
Joe:
I have to agree with Dan i never understand why people put us in the spine of the apps in the ice? All my 27 years of living here its snow or rain maybe a little sleet but that cold air daming never gets this far west. That always stays east of ashville in the east side of the MTN's and into the piedmont and upstate SC.
Posted by Joe | October 6, 2009 1:10 PM
J.:
Oh the pain and suffering!!!! Whats a man got to do to use his 4 wheel drive????
Posted by J. | October 6, 2009 12:20 PM
Ben:
i love this story. its great to show forecasts from many different sources. it would be really nice if you could show forecasts like this one more often.
looking forward to all of the "official" forecasts.
Bring On The Snow!
Posted by Ben | October 6, 2009 11:29 AM
Hank - So. Jersey:
Jesse - Thanks for posting the widely divergent winter guess-casts. I love the winter and the snow (can't ski without it). But personally, I'll wait for each 5-day forecast to occur, open the drapes on any given day, and plan accordingly. Too bad too many people take these long range guess-casts as etched in stone and then get apopolectic when the planet decides otherwise.
Posted by Hank - So. Jersey | October 6, 2009 10:59 AM
Joe:
Your right jessie that noaa winter outlook or cpc is a joke equal chance of anything? What kind of forecast is that? Anyways thanks for posting all of this for us to read and compare. Will you be posting a winter outlook? Thanks
FROM JESSE: No, unfortunately there's not enough operational forecasting in my daily routine for me to have the knowledge to make a forecast.
Posted by Joe | October 6, 2009 10:20 AM
Dan:
As an Appalachian State student up on the mountain, I am quite excited with the prospects of this winter season. Although I do agree with most of what Henry's forecast lays out, I have to disagree with what he has forecasted for the spine of the Appalachians. Were at 3,500 ft+, I wish someone would distinguish us from the piedmont, and state whether they expect ice storms up here as well. I would think we would have more snow in store, based on the track of his storm systems farther south, allowing more cold air to infultrate.
Seeing as your from here (good ol' Wilkes county), Id love to hear what you have to say on the matter.
FROM JESSE: Well, I don't know enough about what went into Henry's forecast to answer that question. I will say too things - 1.) Clearly the weather will be different that high and 2.) Even places that normally have primarily snow (such as us here in State College) can certainly have winters with primarily ice (happened to us last winter).
Posted by Dan | October 6, 2009 9:47 AM
Junior:
Morning Jesse,
I am very excited to see Henry's prognostications for the upcoming winter seasonl. I sure wish I still lived in the NC High Country cause the storm tracks Henry alludes to certainly can make for some great upslope events! Living in the foothills now I can only hope the cold invades far enough south to catch the southern jet systems. This is a calssic set up for piedmont snow/ ice. For a snow starved hillbilly, this makes for great dreams of playing in the snow!
Enjoy your posts, keep them coming!
Junior
Posted by Junior | October 6, 2009 9:12 AM
Nate:
Jesse just one thing though... I noticed about Henry's forecast map - it strike you strange that his map of the most concentrated cold/snow (over the Middle Atlantic/Northeast) is also the biggest media market in the USA (lol).
Heavy snow in Delaware but not in northern Michigan ? Hmmm.
Posted by Nate | October 6, 2009 9:04 AM
Jim:
LOL on your "comments!" I'm just looking towards winter which is my favorite season. Enjoy your comments and looking forwards to the first hint of snow for Richmond, VA in the forcast. :-)
Posted by Jim | October 6, 2009 8:24 AM
MIKE:
i think the greatlakes and the northeast will get hammerd with alot of snow and there will be a very bad blizzard for this area.
Posted by MIKE | October 6, 2009 8:10 AM
