I caught my wife going outside in sandals yesterday, declaring she couldn't remember such warm weather around Christmas. Knowing how short people's weather memories are, I cringe when people say things like this, so I set out to see if she was right, using some tools from AccuWeather.com Premium (which has a 30-day free trial).

We've known each other since 1998. First, looking at the weather that has transpired so far this month... I copied these values from the "Past Year" section of Premium for zipcode 16801 STATE COLLEGE, PA:

December 2006: +6.9 Above Normal So Far (Highest 68) 0.4" Snow So Far **WARMEST AVG**
December 2005: -3.2 Below Normal (Highest 51) 15.0" Snow
December 2004: 1.7 Above Normal (Highest 55) 0.4" Snow
December 2003: 0.8 Above Normal (Highest 56) 18.2" Snow
December 2002: -1.7 Below Normal (Highest 51) 19.2" Snow **SNOWIEST**
December 2001: +5.8 Above Normal (Highest 70) 1.3" Snow
December 2000: -8.1 Below Normal (Highest 50) 7.6" Snow **COLDEST**
December 1999: +2.2 Above Normal (Highest 63) No Snow **LEAST SNOWY**
December 1998: +7.3 Above Normal (Highest 71) 2.0" Snow **WARMEST AVG & HIGH**

DECEMBER 2006 SO FAR (SEE GRAPHS OF ALL 8 YEARS)
(GREEN=NORMALS, TOP/BOTTOM READINGS=RECORDS)

So this does look like the warmest December since 1998, looking at the average of the high and low temperatures each day when compared to normal. And it has been since 2001 that temperatures have been significantly above normal in the month of December. So for that, I give her climatological memory an "A".

However, just comparing the highest temperature of the month, this year is not the warmest but comes in 3rd (and would move one more ranking down if not for that 68 on Dec. 1st). 2001 and 1998 had higher high temperatures, each in the 70s. But that was a long time ago. This year also ranks 3rd for the least snowy years since 1998.

What's in store for the rest of the month? If you look at the AccuWeather.com Planner, which comes with the Premium service, and graphs out weather for the next two weeks compared to history. It looks like it's going to stay above normal, ensuring this month being the warmest on average for the last 8 years.

WHITE LINE - NORMAL HIGH
BLACK LINE - NORMAL LOW

The interesting thing is, if you compare the next 15 days to the same time period in 2003, 2004 and 2005, all four years show up way above normal, even though the month of December was not in the past (see data at top). And no snow has fallen during that time period in the last 3 years, so if some falls this year it will be surprising. None is predicted in the Planner either but this may not be true, as we don't predict specific amounts beyond a few days, even if snow is in the forecast.

One Christmas sticks out in my head as unusually warm when I was growing up in North Carolina. Based on weather records obtained through our Forensics folks, that year was 1987. My family was vacationing in High Point, NC, which had a high of 70 degrees on December 26th that year.

I've experienced at least two White Christmases in my life: 1981 in Boomer, NC and 2002 here in State College, PA. I believe 1989 was also white in western North Carolina, due to snowfall during the first half of the month.