The Wilkes County & Appalachian wind storm of July 8, 2016

UPDATE: Monday, July 11: About 4,300 people are still without power Monday morning, according to the Journal Patriot, which quotes Duke Energy spokesman David J. Scanzoni as saying the winds were 70 mph, similar to what I estimated yesterday.

Crystal Jane says on Wilkes Road Alerts: "Still no power in Ferguson NC either. I was in the river Friday when that little twister hit. Trees fell all around us in a swirl pattern and limbs slapped us in the back. We found a bare spot on the bank and hunkered down. It came on so fast there was no time to get to safety. It only lasted a few minutes. When it was over you couldn't even see the top of the water for all the debris."

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ORIGINAL REPORT Sunday, July 10: I grew up in Wilkes County, North Carolina, and was there when Hurricane Hugo struck in 1989, which devastated the county by knocking down hundreds of trees, and cut power for my house for 10 days. On Friday evening (July 8, 2016), a line of severe thunderstorms did damage (from what locals say) nearly as bad -- definitely the worst since Hugo.

Ray's Weather, a website that concentrates on western North Carolina weather, said on Facebook"And what a storm it was! After the storm I drove across parts of Watauga County, I have never seen so many trees down--possibly the biggest storm I have seen in my 25 years here. While we would not say that an embedded tornado was impossible, the REAL damage came from powerful straight line winds."

Here's what it looked like as the storm approached (this is known as a "shelf cloud" which often accompanies severe thunderstorms):

(Photo by Matthew Allen, North Wilkesboro)

The local paper, the Journal Patriot, said that restoring power was a challenge, and 14,000 people served by Duke Energy were still without power on Saturday morning. You can see why:

(Photo by Brad Mathis - Finley Avenue, North Wilkesboro)

The storms were part of a larger storm system that caused over 600 storm spotter reports (mostly wind damage) over eight states! The maps below show the Severe Thunderstorm Warnings (yellow - most of the 200 warnings issued) and spotter reports (icons):

Wilkes County is highlighted as the white circle above and green county below:

Many people wondered if it was a tornado. The radar loop shown below doesn't indicate any rotation that could be interpreted as a tornado in Wilkes. There is some possible rotation while the storm was in Watauga County, but the radar beam from the Roanoke NEXRAD radar is seeing precipitation at no lower than 6,500 feet above the ground at this point.

We may never know. The only way to truly determine if a tornado took place is to have the National Weather Service do an aerial or ground survey (which they are not doing due to the extensive damage area) to detect whether or not the trees were falling in a pattern, or falling in the same direction. I participated in a storm survey with the local NWS office here in State College, PA in 2010. Even though the damage looked similar to what I'm seeing in Wilkes County (including trees both snapped off and uprooted), and even though I saw a funnel cloud over the area at the time, they determined it to be straight-line winds.

The truth is, straight-line winds can do as much, or more damage than tornadoes, and are much more common. You shouldn't feel short-changed if the damage wasn't caused by a tornado. Most wind damage is non-tornadic; meteorologically speaking, tornadoes are rare.

Did storm storm strike without warning? The NWS issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for western Wilkes County at 6:24 PM (shown above as the yellow shape), so any residents with a NOAA Weather Radio or an app on their phone such as AccuWeather.com would have been alerted to that advisory. The advisory predicted 60 mph wind gusts. The storm crossed the county between 7:00 and 8:00 PM. While that 30-60 minute lead time would have given people enough time to seek shelter or gather loose items from their yards, there was little they could do for larger preparation, unlike Hurricane Hugo, which gave days of time to board up windows, move cars, etc. Four other severe thunderstorm warnings have been issued this Spring for Wilkes County, and none caused such widespread damage.

(Regional Radar Loop of the Storms)

How high were the winds? It's impossible to say without a NWS storm survey. There were very few measured wind gusts Friday night. Outside of Wilkes, the airport at Boone reported 63 mph winds, while 87 mph was the wind gust on Grandfather Mountain, NC. The NWS has books that talk about what wind speeds will break off or uproot various types and diameters of trees. I think it's safe to assume that the winds were above severe thunderstorm warning criteria (57 mph) -- likely in the 70-80 mph range, if I had to guess.

The storms were prolific lightning producers in Kentucky and West Virginia, but by the time they got to North Carolina, there were few strikes (map above from LightningMaps.Org).

The following are photos and stories from the Wilkes Road Alerts group on Facebook:

(Elaine Fletcher Seefong, North Johnson Road)

(Brad Mathis)

(Brad Mathis)

(Alicia McNeil)

All in all, it was a bad day for trampolines...(Jean Mitchell Mulligan in Mulberry, NC)

Barns...(Martha Mastin, Laura Hodges)

Cars...(Melissa Blankenship)

and RVs...(Melanie Miller)

The only good news was that, after the storm, there was a rainbow...(Sandy Shepherd)

And a sunset...(Tiffany Dawn Wadkins)

The local paper added: "At 10:45 a.m. Saturday, the Duke Energy outage map indicated Wilkes had more electricity outages than any other county in North Carolina or South Carolina. The map showed there were about 14,300 Duke Energy customers in Wilkes without electricity at that point. Outages were centered in and near the Wilkesboros, the Millers Creek/Purlear area, the Moravian Falls area and the Roaring River area. Crews were in the county working to clear downed trees and make repairs were power lines were downed. By 11 a.m. Saturday, it appeared power was about to be restored to an area of D Street, North Wilkesboro, that includes Wilkes Regional Medical Center. The hospital operated through the night on emergency generators."

Some additional stories about the storm posted on the Facebook group, and photos uploaded to Burst.com/AccuWeather are shown below.

Garrett Griffin: "I was at the Forrest Edge Amphitheater about to watch the Tom Dooley play. All of the sudden trees started falling all around. With all of the trees and power lines down, we were stuck inside the lake gates for over 3 hours."

Karen Rhoades Shupe: "I watched our trampoline fly into our swimming pool in a matter of seconds. We are still without power 37 hours later, but thankfully there were no personal injuries at our house."

Angela Walker: "I got caught in the storm and it was scary, power lines where falling down and trees blowing over every where I haven't seen a storm like it since hurricane Hugo."

Wesley-Jessica Golds: "One can't just describe what we experienced but I will try! God is so Good to us!! I was at a photo session with some of our dear friends and kiddos at Cub creek..we saw the darkness in the distance and it started to rain so I packed up my gear to turn around to a horrendous sound like no other. Then I see trees in the distance just being folded and spun so we ran to the cars. Trees are falling at my feet while this white wall full of wind, rocks, hail, leaves and debris pelt me in the face and legs. I am literally suffocated because the wind is so strong. I'm praying "lord please keep them safe (the kids and my friends) truly feeling terrified beyond any explanation. I made it to my friends car to do a body count and realize one friend Misty Bishop-Price wasn't in the car...she made it to the shelter with her daughter. Thank God Jonathan Madden was there to hold onto them! We tried to laugh at the situation to keep from crying but once we realize we were standing in the middle of what appeared to be a tornado (some say strong storm...but we saw the sheer insanity and monster first hand) the shock sets in. God truly took care of our crew today. And I am beyond grateful."

Brad Mathis:"Most widespread damage in Wilkes since Hurricane Hugo. Over 20,000 without power this morning by all utility companies. Duke Energy still has 14,000 customers without power in Wilkes this evening."

Susan Martin Euliss: "I lived here during Hugo when we had 19 trees fall. This storm came up so fast. There was no time to change where you were located. The trees were twisting. Hugo was the only time I have seen a storm like this one."

Martha Dancy:"The storm came up faster than any storm I have ever seen! I have lived here for over 60 years. One minute the sky got black...my husband put some plants on the front porch to get the rain. And before he got back in the house, the wind started at full force. Immediately blowing limbs leaves and porch furniture over!! And the lights flickered maybe twice and then we lost power. It wasn't quite the force of Hugo but it hit faster and actually did more damage in our neighborhood. It only lasted maybe 30 minutes. But it was blowing trees sideways and throwing leaves and limbs all over the yard. Neighbors had porch furniture blowing around and a tree fell through the roof of someone else in the neighborhood. Our power went out at 7:30 last night. And is still out at 4:00 today ..2 large trees fell on the road leading into our Dev fm 421, taking power lines with them. And further down near Tom Dooley Theatre, trees and lines down at Rocky Point entrance."

Becky Lowe Mullins: "In 1989 Hugo took down every tree in our yard. My daughter and I sought shelter in my office in the Federal Building in Wilkesboro. At least we had some notice that Hugo was heading in our direction. This storm was a complete surprise and we had no warning. We are the only ones in our family that has power and are glad to offer them a place to stay and eat. I am almost 65 years old and have never experienced a storm this bad."

Curtis Farmer:"Man i got caught out side in it with my grand daughter and sister and law it was the most fearful thing tree tops breaking and spinning in the air dodging the Debrea and the wind came so fast and hard thank God none of us was hurt it started with a thunder 1 time then sounded like a train was coming at a high rate of speed."

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