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Weather Blogs / WeatherMatrix

Stats On Powerhouse Midwest Storm

By Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather meteorologist and senior weather editor

Published Oct 26, 2010 8:38 AM EST | Updated Oct 26, 2010 1:12 PM EST

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UPDATE: As of 2 PM Central, Eveleth-Virginia Municipal Airport, Minnesota has now dipped to 28.27" sea-level pressure, breaking the lowest pressure ever observed in the interior U.S. (as noted below).

The number of high wind gusts in the 70 mph range is impressive, as are the number of wind damage reports (both totaling 142 reports) and 26 tornado / funnel cloud reports (shown below). The biggest wind gust of the day was 81 mph in Butlerville, northeast of Cincinnati, Ohio.

wind1026bs

UPDATE: As of 1 PM Central, 132 Tornado Warnings have been issued today, along with 160 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Here's a map of all of them:

svr1026c

Waves have risen to 13 feet at Buoy #45001 on Lake Superior. So far as I can tell, a seiche never took place.

UPDATE: As of noon Central time, it looks like about 175,000 people lost power with this storm so far today (some have had it restored).

UPDATE: As of 10:30 Central, Aitkin, Minnesota is at 28.41" pressure, breaking their all-time state record of 28.47", and has become the #2 strongest Great Lakes storm in history. According to the first link, If it can break 28.28", it will be the lowest pressure recorded in the interior contiguous U.S. (outside of coastal states affected by Nor'easters and Hurricanes, and assuming the 28.05" quoted here did not happen at an official climate station, at least not one listed here).

time_chart1026c

There are currently 5 Tornado Watches and 15 Tornado Warnings in effect.

UPDATE: As of 10 AM Central, 11 tornado and funnel cloud reports along with over 50 spotter reports of wind have been received so far. Wind damage is widespread with gusts between 60 and 70 mph.

wind1026b

Here are a few stats on the superstorm currently over the Great Lakes. The view below is from 9:30 Eastern on AccuWeather.com RadarPlus (lower pressures are blue - click to enlarge):

rpfinal1026as

PRESSURE & WINDS:

Pressure readings have fallen to 28.51" in Longview, Minnesota, equivalent to a strong Category 2 Hurricane and the fourth strongest storm (pressure-wise) to ever hit the Great Lakes, according to the NWS, who thinks it could end up #2 of all time. We'll find out later today if the pressure breaks Minnesota's state record. I will continue to update you on the pressure as the storm intensifies.

These kinds of pressure will generate a wide area of very high winds (see our News Story), separate from the thunderstorms (see below). A gust to 78 mph was recorded in Hecker, Illinois overnight. Expect to see a list of wind gusts on this blog later today.

The SPC has issued a high risk for Indiana and western Ohio. High Risks are rare, especially this time of year. According to WikiPedia, there have only been two other High Risks issued in October since 1984. The intense squall line shown on the RadarPlus map above will continue eastward, weakening after it hits the Appalachians (see our News Story). Two Tornado Watches and a lot of Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are already in effect according to MapSpace. Two tornadoes were reported this morning in Iroquois and Will Counties in Illinois. I'll be providing counts of tornado & severe thunderstorm watches & warnings later today.

WAVES:

On top of the surge/seiche (see below), there will be high waves (literally off the charts) on the Great Lakes as this system moves through. The peak waves are expected over Lake Superior, where the NWS says "LOOK FOR THE LARGEST WAVES OF UP TO 27 FEET TO OCCUR AROUND 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY."

A CLARIFICATION ON SEICHES:

I talked yesterday about a possible Seiche on the Great Lakes. According to UIUC, the "big" seiche that hit Chicago was in 1954 when a 6-foot wave grew to 10-feet at the North Illinois pier.

From what that article says, seiches are one wave, like a tsunami, generated by squall lines or fronts. This means that, while a storm surge (similar to a hurricane, where water is low on the west end and high on the east end of the lake), could be a precursor for a seiche, it is not a seiche. This article from MSU confirms that.

A a result, I was probably incorrect in calling the storm surge events in Sept. 2009, May 2010. The "Ice Surges" from Jan. 2008 and Mar. 2009 were probably both, the evidence being the sudden rising of the ice into homes.

In the 1954 case, the wave bounced off of Indiana and was reflected (like a tsunami would be) back to Chicago. If something similar were to happen on Lake Michigan, it would happen this morning as the squall line passes through, however it's coming through aligned north to south this time, versus NW-SE in 1954.

Jesse Ferrell

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