Severe Outbreak Day 2: Silver Lining?
Today's outbreak is likely to be less dramatic than yesterdays, based on The SPC [JessePedia] only issuing a Slight risk, instead of a Moderate, and based on the Severe Weather Indices [JessePedia] that I'm seeing this morning, which are down from yesterday (see below). Still, yesterday's outbreak is a tough act to follow, so we're likely to see dozens of reports of high winds, large hail and possibly tornadoes this evening.
Lifted Index: <-8 Yesterday & Today (scale max is -6!)
CAPE: >4500 Yesterday, >3500 Today (scale max is 2500!)
Energy Helicity: 6+ Yesterday, 4.5 Today (scale max is 4!)
Storm-Relative Helicity: 400+ Yesterday, 250+ Today (scale max is 450)
The latter two indexes are the most retarded compared to yesterday, and are used to predict the severity of (but not necessarily number of) tornadoes. This, to me says that it's unlikely we'll see lots of large tornadoes today, like we did yesterday. But the RUC is a forecast model and it could be completely wrong.
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