Now that Tropical Storm Alex is approaching the Gulf, AccuWeather.com has plenty of information on the storm and how it might affect the Gulf Oil Spill.

But some in the media are concentrating on the scientifically-unlikely scenario where the oil might affect the storm. Rush Limbaugh made some controversial insinuations on his radio show yesterday that the Gulf Oil Spill might act to kill future hurricanes. He got the data right for the storm he was looking at, but he didn't consider other storms that year, one of which proved the opposite of what he was attempting to posit, and he made additional generalizations that were false.

As Joe Bastardi talked about on AccuWeather.com after the Gulf Oil Spill began in May, the other big Gulf oil spill in history was the Ixtoc I spill in the Bay of Campeche in 1979. This is the location of the rig that caused it:

There are no maps of where the oil spread but since northern Mexico and southern Texas were said to be affected, let's assume that the entire Gulf south and west of Houston was affected (a "liberal" estimate, to be sure). WikiPedia says the Ixtoc I oil spill in 1979 started on June 3 and ended on March 23, 1980, so it covered the entire 1979 Hurricane Season. Now that we have the facts, let's do some fact-checking on the quotes from his show:

TRUE. The average is 5.9 (Colorado State) and this year AccuWeather.com is predicting 10.5, much above average.

TRUE. Almost all weather forecasters agree that this will be a blockbuster season. Later in the show, he seems to be insinuating that this won't be an above-average season due to the oil, for the reasons that he lists. However outside of the Weather Research Center, none of the other 11 weather forecasting firms predicting this season are calling for less than 16.

FALSE. Seasonal hurricane predictions are reasonably accurate for the reasons that I have listed before. It's not at all like a (conservative think thank) monkey throwing darts; it makes scientific sense.

As to whether or not this year will really be above normal, we won't know until November 30th, the end of Atlantic Hurricane Season, but I'll be sure to return to this blog entry then to post the results.

TRUE. You can see the map of Hurricane Henri's progress in the Gulf below.

UNKNOWN. I can't independently verify this at this time due to the enormity of the dataset, but it may be true. The National Hurricane Center did say in a 1979 report that it was the second hurricane (a different dataset than tropical storms) to form and die in the Gulf:

However this is a little like standing in wonder next to your washing machine, perplexed at how rare it is for your shirts to escape. Storms literally can't get out of the Gulf without hitting land and steering currents at those latitudes typically move storms far and quick. So it's not that they don't die in that region of the world, it's that they hit land before they do. You could create a Gulf-shaped area further east out in the Atlantic and the same would hold true, in my opinion, in fact even more so due to stronger atmospheric currents.

UNKNOWN. This is pure conjecture without any evidence to support it. Since there have been thousands of storms which have died throughout history due to meteorological factors, it's a bit presumptive to assume that this one did not. In fact the National Hurricane Center gives the reasons for Henri's demise in their 1979 report:

FALSE. Consider Hurricane Bob in July which left the oil spill area, became stronger, and made landfall on the coast south of New Orleans! Twenty were killed and $55.6 million in damages were done by this storm. By Rush's logic, I could blame both the strengthening and landfall of Hurricane Bob on the oil spill.

FALSE. Henri moved slowly throughout its existence (note how close the dots are together), never hitting land. It "made a bat out of hell" for nowhere.

FALSE. In addition to Hurricane Bob which hit New Orleans, Hurricane Frederic made landfall near the Mississippi / Alabama border as a Category 4 storm (worse than Katrina), killing 5 and causing $6.5 billion in damage! Again using Rush's logic I could claim that we will have another Katrina (or worse) in 2010 because of the Gulf Oil Spill.

In fact if you look at the map of Tropical Storms of 1979, it looks like there is a congregation of tracks in the Gulf - as if they were attracted to the oil. Of course, they weren't, any any scientist could tell you that but it makes more sense than claiming there were no storms there because of the oil.

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