I wanted to expound a bit more on what I said below regarding the potential damage at Long Beach, on Oak Island in southern Brunswick County, NC, where I have spent every summer of my life. Click on the graphic below for a closer look.

Note that, in Situation #1 in the graphic, the storm hits to the west of Long Beach. Because hurricanes rotate counter-clockwise, the wind is from the ocean, pushing storm surge and huge waves into the beachfront houses. In Situation #2, the storm hits to the east of Long Beach and the winds are from the land. Not only does that slow the wind speeds down with friction, but now the winds are from the land and the storm surge and waves are held back.

The "right-front quadrant rule" is actually valid anywhere on a south/east facing coast (other than special situations like Lake Ponchartrain). But I have to show some place as an example so we'll take my yearly vacation spot (marked with an "X") as an example. This principle is why the most brutal oceanfront damage from Katrina occurred just to the east of landfall, in southern Mississippi.

NOTE: After I drew the above graphic, I found one on the web which tells the same story, ironically for the same location, and shows a little more detail.

The above explanation is why the storm surge is always higher in what is referred to as the "right front quadrant", which (for any south/east facing coasts) is just east of the storm's landfall This also assumes that the geography of the ocean floor is the same... this can also be a major factor in determining storm surge. The point however, is that all things being equal, the waves are being driven INTO a beach house in Situation #1 and AWAY from a beach house in Situation #2. Since storm surge and waves do the most damage to oceanfront property, this can make a huge difference.

For example, at Long Beach, they haven't had extensive surge/wave damage from a storm to their west since Hurricane Hugo in 1989. Above is a picture my father took of our beach house after Hugo. It had a basement before Hugo. My father described the scene on Oak Island as being "deep sand in the street with air conditioners and washers and dryers stuck in the sand." Even though the storm hit nearly 150 miles away (near Charleston, SC), the wind had been from the land and the surge had washed all basement items from oceanfront houses into the street. As noted here, the sand dunes (which had been built up well) were razed. Some houses were condemned when their supports were weakened and this was probably when many of the houses at the East end of the beach were lost forever (the city moved the dune line further inland and owners could not rebuild).

Hugo was a heck of a storm. After nearly destroying our beach house, Hugo powered inland and hurricane force winds downed thousands of trees at our residence in northwestern NC, more than 250 miles from landfall.

So, it gives me the creeps to see Ophelia hanging out straight south of Oak Island. So far, forecasts take her inland to the East, so I'll hope. When I was at Long Beach last month, I took some photos showing how well the dunes and beach are doing. Well, I took similar photos in 1988, a year before Hugo, and without a major hit to the west of the island since Hugo, I fear their time is up soon.

I also took the photo above last month, showing a new house going up on the end of Oak Island. They don't build them with basements anymore and this puppy might withstand a 15-foot storm surge, so it'll be fine either way during Ophelia... but another Katrina or Hugo will take down even the tallest.

Looking back at the damage from Hurricane Floyd at Long Beach, I was surprised by the veracity. Floyd hit to the east of the island in 1999, and I can only assume the lack of beach and dunes built up at the time allowed the damage to happen. Had Floyd hit on the North Carolina / South Carolina border, the damage would have been catastropic at Oak Island.

Report a Typo