Models: Late-Week Superstorm Vs. 1993, 2007

Some strong words from Joe Bastardi this morning regarding the Nor'easter projected to blow up late-week, but how will this storm compare to 2007's "Valentine's Day Storm" or 1993's "Storm of the Century"?

Here are some forecast model lowest central pressure numbers to chew on. There will be more than one storm but the Thursday Nor'easter is the big one, and it hangs around for a long time.

Storm #1: <998mb Low 21Z Wed (NMM) Moves into Eastern Mass. Storm #2: <976mb Low 21Z Thu (NMM+GFS+ECMWF) Over NYC, Hangs Around Until Saturday Storm #3: <986mb Low 00Z Mon (GFS) Off Coast of Mass.

Although the three favored models are in good agreement, there are dissenters; the JMA & NOGAPS don't show a strong storm, pressure-wise. Yes, there is still time for this potential blockbuster storm to disappear from the progs, but we're quickly running out of time and that seems unlikely. This is not 6 days out like the last time I compared a storm against 1993 & 2007 (that one didn't live up to the model hype although it was a 984mb low offshore and still dropped a foot of snow in Pennsylvania).

Lowest Central Pressure Comparison:

BLIZZARD OF 1993: 960mbTHIS WEEK'S STORM: 976 mb (progged by 3 models) V-STORM OF 2007 [PREMIUM | PRO]: 975mb (GFS progged only 980 1 week out)

Note that there are huge differences between the meteorological makeup of the storms... 1993 was a huge storm affecting much of the eastern United States, while this storm will literally begin right off the coast of southern New England and launch its biggest offensive there. 2007 was a large storm that moved through the Midwest before blowing up over New England. But looking at the effects that these two historical storms had for southern New England, we could see a similar situation unfolding this week. As J.B. said, what this storm lacks in strength or coverage will be made up for in duration.

We're not just talking heavy snow here (if this forecast comes true, I think we will see the highest accumulations rival 2007 or 1993's in localized areas) but also wind and coastal flooding. Like all Nor'easters, the highest winds (causing potential Blizzard conditions) will be closer to the coast, and the storm's affect on inland areas is yet to be determined, though the GFS is currently predicting 30 mph+ sustained winds as far west as western Maryland.

Comments (8): Alex from Delmar, Delaware:

How do you think the Central Delmarva will do with this storm?

Posted by Alex from Delmar, Delaware | February 23, 2010 9:36 PM Joe:

Jesse,

From what I see it looks like the coast of Ct. and Long Island will get a rain event since the center of the Low is over NYC. What do you think ?

Posted by Joe | February 23, 2010 4:34 PM Matt:

Hi Jesse!

I know that Margusity predicted possibly 12-20 inches for the Philadelphia area; that is a far cry from the mostly rain they were originally calling for on Sunday. Do you think this is well within the realm of possibility?

FROM JESSE: Philly is most likely major city to get heavy snow. New York City (and to a lesser extend Philly) could get ripped off due to rain. With the storm meandering around, it's going to be a really tough forecast and unless you live away from the coast there will be no guarantees.

Posted by Matt | February 23, 2010 2:51 PM Chraig:

Jesse, Also from Delhi, NY. Driving to Rutland, Vt on Thursday for a ski weekend. What looks like the best window to get up there? Obviously not what one would recommend doing during a storm of this magnitude, but i am curious as to when we should expect to leave. I understand that it's still pretty far out but any insight would be appreciated. Thanks

FROM JESSE: Looking at your WeatherAlarm which says "Snow: Total amount 29.3 Inches next 4 days" I'd say if you're not leaving today or tomorrow morning you're going to have a heck of a time getting up there! Couldn't recommend it, but it will get very very bad starting Thursday late morning. If you must leave Thursday, the earlier the better.

Posted by Chraig | February 23, 2010 2:20 PM tony genovese:

looking at the power of this storm is one thing be i cant see new york city and long island getting nothing but a heavy rainstorm the tract puts it right over long island moving nw from carolina i cant conpare this to other years when my deal is rain tony

Posted by tony genovese | February 23, 2010 12:05 PM Brad Vohs:

Hey Jesse, sound exciting. I live in Delhi, NY Catskill areas...what kind of strom do you think I may see out of this BIG DADDY! I tell ya, we have had many days of snow, but no more than a few inches here and there...Is this our one foot plus storm? Thanks, BRAD

Posted by Brad Vohs | February 23, 2010 11:27 AM md:

When was the 2007 storm? Feb. 13-14th? We had 7.6" in Allentown, nothing compared to 1993: 17.6". As for this storm, it's going to have to be huge to beat the 18" one we had earlier this month. I think this one hits SE NE.

FROM JESSE: Sorry, I forgot to link that one in. It was the Valentine's Day storm.

Posted by md | February 23, 2010 10:32 AM mario:

Hi Jesse, why is the nam model showing that the thursday storm is tracking more to nj coast line then the ny coast?

FROM JESSE: In a situation like this where the low gets cut off from the flow and hangs around, it could easily meander in strange directions... I'm amazed they are even close...

Posted by mario | February 23, 2010 10:02 AM