Model Maps for End-of-Week NE Snowstorm

UPDATE: The 18Z GFS is out, and we're still in the game. For updates the next couple days, monitor the thread on the Forums.

UPDATE: Blog reader Patrick pointed out that I left out a crucial part of this Model forecast - when? The GFS says Friday Night and the DGEX says Friday during the day.

REMEMBER: This is all model conjecture at this point - the timing could change, the amounts will change, and the whole storm could disappear between now and then. The models have been talking about this storm for a while (the Forum topic was opened on November 28th!) but I didn't feel comfortable giving information on it here until we saw some model agreement.

ORIGINAL POST:

Here are some comments on the snowfall maps from the Forecast Models [JessePedia] regarding the possible end-of-week snowstorm in the Northeast. We are starting to see some consistency and agreement with the models, but there are still big question marks.

Note that, for a snowstorm to even be possible, there had to be a break in the cold outbreak (we're only 20 as of this blog writing at noon, but we'll be 50 degrees here in State College tomorrow and Wednesday). This was something I neglected to mention in my "where's the snow" post last week: Sometimes, it's too cold to snow. What I mean by this is that when the Arctic outbreak takes over the entire eastern half of the nation, high pressure is in control and the temperature contrast is not there to produce storms that can bring significant snow.

First, the latest DGEX map:

The DGEX has been pretty consistent in predicting this type of I-95 snow-lovers-dream (where a coastal storm coats I-95 and leaves everybody else untouched), and the GFS is starting to be consistent (or at least more than it has been, given the current model mayhem). Yesterday, the GFS 12Z & 18Z showed your typical New England snowstorm:

Then last night (00Z) it showed the I-95 snow lover's dream, which got everybody excited.

This morning it believes the coastal storm will be far enough west to give most of the Northeast a good snow storm (second image is the latest 12Z run, click to enlarge):

Henry has put out a map (PREMIUM | PRO), though he's not giving amounts yet. Elliot (PREMIUM | PRO) is arguing with himself (literally) on his Weather Worriers video. AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO USERS READ NOW | 30-DAY FREE TRIAL) said in his blog at noon today: