Model Hype on Weekend Northeast Snowstorm

UPDATE: The NAM has been steadily decreasing snowfall amounts since last night, check out this animation of the 00Z, 06Z, 12Z runs, but it actually increases amounts in Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

UPDATE: Blog reader Lawrence points out this hopeful forecast discussion (archived) by the NWS here in State College, which says, in part: "THE 12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THE NEWEST 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN RUNS NOW PORTRAY A MAJOR EAST COAST STORM COMING OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND RIGHT INTO THE SWEET SPOT FOR CENTER-JUMPING BOMBOGENESIS AND DEEP SNOW FOR CENTRAL PA WITH THE MAIN SFC LOW PASSING JUST TO OUR SE. MANY MEMBERS OF THE 18Z GEFS PUT OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQIV PRECIP OVER CENTRAL PA SAT-SUN."

ORIGINAL POST:

Since at least yesterday evening, the major Forecast Models [JessePedia] (DGEX, NMM, ECMWF and GFS) have been predicting a weekend snowstorm - the latest NAM shows 6"+ from northern PA through New England... the DGEX less, the GFS, much more: over 18 inches. Among them, the DGEX is most hopeful for significant accumulations (1-3 inches) along the I-95 corridor in the major cities. The others show only light snow there. GFS was consistent from 18Z to 00Z to 06Z.