Mid-Atlantic Snow Obs Map, Boring Wx Alert
UPDATE 2/1: The list and maps have been updated below, along with this one from AccuWeather.com:
If you believe anything on the map above is inaccurate, leave me a Comment. Keep in mind though that this may not show localized amounts.
A number of the reports from the next morning on the map indicated over 20 inches around Richmond, though those didn't show up in the Spotter reports. They didn't appear to come from Spotter, HPC, or COOP reports. A couple of these stations were SHBV2 & CARV2 and and even when I clicked on them I couldn't find the 20" reports. If you have any info on this, please let me know. Data is not yet available from the NCDC GIS system. There is a topic on the Forums discussing the "forecast bust" though after talking to Henry Margusity he believes it was less the models and more the snow ratios that gave us the bust (the air was unusually cold, making for twice the snow as there would normally be). I think it was a combination of both.
UPDATE: Here's a great view of the snow cover from the AccuWeather.com Virginia Visible Satellite:
The snowstorm is over; it spanned from the Plains to New Jersey, featured devastating ice and dropped more than 10 inches of snow on 11 states. Here are a couple of draft snow maps by NOAA's NOHRSC along with a final list of accumulations from NWS spotters, as broadcast yesterday with changes overnight.
And to answer questions for you in DC, Baltimore, the northern Mid-Atlantic and southeasternmost PA: Yes, we had you in little or no snow Friday morning, as did the government's NWS; we both corrected this by Saturday. I will push for a video tomorrow explaining why that was, but in short, I believe the models swung north at the last minute after swinging south all week.
NOTE: The original maps posted here (1 | 2) have been replaced by the versions above, which show a more complete picture of the observations after new ones have come in. Link to interactive map where these screenshots came from: NOHSRC (old)
King & Queen, VA: 18.0" Ridge, MD: 15.2" Rocky Fork, TN: 14.0" Multiple Locations, WV: 14.0" Hansford & Gruver, TX: 14.0" Mills River, NC: 13.0" Guymon & Griggs, OK: 13.0" Sharp, AR: 12.0" Frankford, DE: 11.3" Gray, KS: 11.0" Cranks, KY: 11.0" Moody, MO: 11.0" Multiple Locations, NJ: 10.0" Iron & Wasola, MO: 9.0" Tell City, IN: 6.0" Converse, SC: 5.0" New Freedom, PA: 3.5" Dillard, GA: 3.0" Multiple Locations, AL: 2.0" Corinth, MS: 1.0"
MAJOR CITIES (Official Climo Station Through Midnight):
Roanoke, VA: 9.9" Washington, D.C.: 6.4" Charlottesville, VA: 6.0" Baltimore, MD: 5.5" Raleigh, NC: 5.0" Charlotte, NC: 2.7" Philadelphia, PA: 2.1"
And now: A Boring Weather Alert: High pressure will be in control of most of the nation tomorrow, with only a couple of dry low pressures/fronts hanging around, as you can see from the Galileo Surface Map below. But remember what I say: The Weather Is Always Interesting and keep an eye on "J's Breaking News" at right; I'm sure I can find something to dig up.
Comments (10):
Mike S:
The snowfall map needs to bring the blue 6-12 inch color farther north in VA, MD, DE, and even southern NJ. In that area the map looks like what was forecasted, which was underdone. DC reported over 6 and BWI was about 6. Most of Delaware and southern NJ as far north as Atlantic City also reported 6+ amounts. It's truly amazing to have one storm plaster nearly the entire state of Virginia with 6+ inches, and the map should depict that accurately.
Posted by Mike S | February 2, 2010 9:12 AM
Jeff Perkins:
Hi Jesse,
5" here in New Freedom @ my house, where did the 3.5" come from in New Freedom?
Jeff Perkins
FROM JESSE: All those were NWS spotter reports, that one didn't say where it came from.
Posted by Jeff Perkins | February 1, 2010 5:25 AM
Scott:
Measured in 3 places, I got 8 inches in my yard in Manassas, Va.
Posted by Scott | January 31, 2010 2:34 PM
Dino:
An apology will do. Go to abc2news.com then go to Justin Berk's blog and take notes.
Posted by Dino | January 31, 2010 1:54 PM
ken:
My gripe is forecasting nowdays seems it is only as good as the models are. The "art" of forecasting has been replaced by model gospel. With the advent of message boards its gotten even worse as people hop aboard the model they want to verify. We need good old fashioned forecasters who look at real data not just models.
Posted by ken | January 31, 2010 1:14 PM
Patrick Marron:
Kudos to Joe Bastardi for his blog on Jan 28 during which he said the models were not getting it and the storm would go more north than forecast. Henry also was in this camp and Elliot noted on Friday that the precip was trending north. Ashburn Va received 6 inches. Well done Accuweather!
Posted by Patrick Marron | January 31, 2010 1:11 PM
Vince Dio:
I don't think the NWS or Accuweather explain to people well enough that this is a science. Joe B. goes out in front and does stick his neck out, like saying this is going to be the coldest winter in 20 years, it won't. Also NW New Jersey was in the category for snowy and cold. We have about 14 inches to date. Our last snow was 2 inches which everyone dropped the ball on. So we have had 2 inches since December 20th until now. This is at least tied for the least snow that you could have. From an entertainment purpose it is fun to watch but everything is debatable what is said. I think people are under a misunderstanding if they think what you are saying is guaranteed. Without question Joe B, or Henry or anyone cannot predict 5 days out with a great degree of accuracy. People get all mad becaue Henry puts something out that has NY, Northern NJ and south in the snow zone 5 days out and if it doesn't pan out they are all mad. I still think that there needs to be more emphasis on the now casting as you could clearly see the strom from the radar was pushing further north. To change the forecast Saturday morning was way to late for travelers. They could practically see it themselves. There is at least a great deal of passion from you guys and that is worth a lot. I am sure that you strive to get better all the time.
Posted by Vince Dio | January 31, 2010 12:31 PM
Chris:
My in laws live just east of Charlottesville and measured 12 inches of snow in their backyard.
I live 10 miles west of Charlottesville and measured 11 in my back yard.
Not sure why C'ville reports 6 here.
FYI
Posted by Chris | January 31, 2010 11:52 AM
Kelly:
Henry said all last week that DC-Balt area was going to get a nice stormstorm from this storm 6+ inches..This proves my point Accuweather has a better handle in forecasting than NOAA..The models kept trending southward and Henry said the system would turn northward which it did but not enough for Central PA (Hershey Area)..Maybe next Friday night and Saturday Central PA will get their storm...Keep up the Great work Jesse, love your Blogs and I'll keep watching Henry for the Big Daddy Hat!
Posted by Kelly | January 31, 2010 11:44 AM
Kevin T:
It's all cool Jesse - if anybody could have done any better, let them step forward. Ya'all aren't fortune tellers - you predict the weather the best you can given the tools you have. I for one am THRILLED we got 5" here in Walkersville, MD (right outside of Frederick MD). Gonna go sled riding today as soon as it warms up a bit. Take it easy and keep up the great work.
Posted by Kevin T | January 31, 2010 11:42 AM
