Joe Bastardi RE: Katrina Army Corps Ruling

AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] asked me to post his thoughts on the recent court ruling faulting the Army Corps of Engineers for the flooding at New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina. Because all of Joe's blogs are on our subscription Pro site he was unable to post this publicly without doing it here. I haven't researched this topic enough to have an opinion myself, though if you post a (rational) Comment I will forward all Comments to Joe, and, should he respond, I will post responses here.

DISCLAIMER: (Just like when I rant) these are the opinions of Joe Bastardi and my commenters, and may not reflect those of AccuWeather, Inc. or AccuWeather.com.

Joe's Meteorological Outlook: November 19, 2009

THURSDAY 1 PM

GOVERNMENT TO BLAME FOR KATRINA FLOODING? HOW ABOUT BUILDING MUCH OF CITY NEAR OR BELOW SEA LEVEL SURROUNDED BY 86 DEGREE WATER.

The ruling that shoddy management by the Army Corp of engineers of a navigation channel seems to me to be a classic case of simply trying to find one cause for something that has multiple causes.

Here look at this:

http://www.denverpost.com/headlines/ci_13818665

Now let me, since it was on national TV on Friday pm before Katrina that I told people to get out of New Orleans, weigh in on this.

1) Katrina was not because of global warming. If you want to play that card, then explain why it weakened from a 5 to a 3 before landfall, something that may have happened multiple times in seasons like 1915-1916 as we didnt have constant recon then. So no global warming finger

2) The city is lucky to be alive in the first place. Someone has got to say it, and out of respect for what happened there, I have kept my mouth shut except in talks I give, but face it, you build a city near or under sea level  and surround it with water that can support cat 3-5 hurricanes, what do you expect to happen. The dirty little secret that no one wants to address but I will, is New Orleans was lucky. The attack by Katrina was not a full frontal assault, but a pincer movement that spared the city the prime devastation. Push water back west to the north of the city, then have the northwest wind blast it back in. However if you get the track of the 1947 hurricane and its as strong as Katrina, then the city would be devastated probably beyond repair. I dont know if people understand that. The track from the east southeast hitting NORTH of the mouth of the Mississippi and moving right over the town would push the 20 to 30 foot surge, not 9-12 like Katrina, back through Lakes Bourne and Ponchetraine with the full fury of the storm coming right over them

3) The toughest thing to say, the populace itself. But look how many of us are not  awake to what is going on today in anything. We go about our daily lives and say, well I can t do anything about that, so why try to find out what is really going on. And this is the case there. I was in New Orleans in May of 2005 and make no mistake about it, I LOVE NEW ORLEANS. In fact The Howl at the Moon Piano Bar may be one of the most enjoyable places I have ever been at ( the piano players play for tips, which are jacked up through the roof by people bidding on songs that have their state featured. So when Texans and Oklahomans go at it, a song will be played that will fetch a 100 dollar tip, and then the opposing state will bid 105. Its fun to watch, but since we have state taxes in PA, I never have bid). But upon moseying up to the bar for an adult beverage, I asked the bartender for the best local drink.. So he said that would be a hurricane.... I said will give it to me New Orleans style... he said you wouldnt like that, it would be too weak, we dont have strong hurricanes here in New Orleans.

Now you may say, how can you judge by that? But most of the people there did not understand what was going to happen with Katrina because they had forgotten Betsy, and Camille the cat 5 was not bad there. Even Lili, which the director of the hurricane center had said would be the strongest storm ever to hit Louisiana, and given their history, that would be like saying the Phillies would sweep the Yankees in 4 games, all of them shutouts, fell apart rapidly in the 12 hours before, So the mentality was such that people did not think this could be the problem that had people blasting me on blogs for causing panic it turned out to be. And part of that had to be with local official, not the federal government, which I feel has been given a bum rap on this matter.

And of course that dove tails into the idea that putting faith OR BLAME on the government is not what living free is all about.

Now lets issue another ruling on the army corps of engineers. Since we are going to "blame" them for Katrina, let also say that up until Katrina, they did a good enough job with that navigation channel to help bring more commerce to New Orleans.

But folks, and I pray I am wrong, you havent seen what can happen to New Orleans in a worst case, which has happened twice on the Mississippi coast. And when, not if it does, its not global warming or poor management that does, but nature simply reminding man that she has the final say, not man, on issues of nature

thanks for reading, ciao for now

Comments from readers of Jesse's blog:

I was down there for a conference before Katrina and of all the places I have been, New Orleans is one place that I have always wanted to go back to. The city was just a great place to be and hang out. The food was something that I will never forget and the people generally were just happy. I remember how huge the convention center was and dreaded the walk from my hotel and through the convention center - it took forever to walk through it!
I also remember walking on the street and looking UP at the Mississippi! One of the greatest rivers on earth and you build a city that is mostly below its level. This never really made sense to me and freaked me out a bit as I walked UP steps to see the river.

It was a sad few days watching all the news after Katrina hit. The worst was seeing the same converence center that I had just been to and all the suffering. If there was an unlimited supply of money I am sure that New Orleans could have been protected from anything, but there are limits and it will never be fully protected. New Orleans faces another tragic disaster in its future and it isn't a question of if, but when. The same goes for the big cities on the West Coast (earthquakes)and many other big cities on the Gulf Coast and Atlantic coast.

Posted by Lee | November 23, 2009 10:36 AM

I'm glad to see someone speaking out in defense of the Army Corps of Engineers. I find it disappointing that a group who does the best they can do to defend the properties and businesses of people living in areas prone to certain natural disasters are now being blamed for something that, in my opinion, was out of their control to start with.

Here in Powder Springs, GA, there was a similar lawsuit against the city regarding the flooding of houses along a major creek. During the heavy rains we received from Dennis about 4 or 5 years ago, many people lost their homes. They stated the flooding would not have occurred if debris hadn't been piled up under a major highway bridge crossing the creek just downstream from them and they filed a lawsuit against the city. The final court ruling was that yes, the debris from previous floods was essentially a dam that prohibited the free flow of the flood waters. The city bought the most damaged homes, razed them, and put up a city park so no new construction could be built. They cleaned up the debris under the bridge and began to routinely check for and clean up anything along the bridge pilings. Come forward to September 2009 and the 20" of water that fell from the sky, and again that road flooded. Only this time it flooded much worse - almost the entire street, on both sides, was flooded. Instead of just coming up to the windowsills like before, the creekside houses were submerged up to the gables. And there was no debris dam under the bridge like before (although lots of debris piled up during the flooding.) So I think the moral of the story is this: if someone lives in a low-lying area or near a body of water, it's not "if" but "when" it will flood, no matter how much effort we make to force nature to behave and do our bidding.

Posted by Michelle | November 22, 2009 5:44 PM

What about biloxi?

It was devastated!

Posted by tom | November 22, 2009 12:14 AM
John:

Joe B,

Couldn't have said it better myself. Would love to here more from you on Premium by the way. It's time to let the folks know that nature is indeed in charge, and nothing man can do will stand in her way. IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN!

Posted by John | November 20, 2009 11:54 AM
tadchem:

Back in 1980 I was living near Round Rock, Texas when a severe thunderstorm dumped several inches of rain in a few hours over a small area of the Brushy Creek watershed. The unprecedented flooding along the creek was unexpected and fairly severe, but the town had the sense to pass an ordinance prohibiting any new construction on land identified by hydrologists as the "100-year flood plain."
California revised building codes after the 1933 Long Beach earthquake to make walls and buildings more earthquake-resistant.
Mayans built levees in the fields that flooded frequently, and then built their homes ON TOP OF the levees.
Wisdom is when you learn from the mistakes of the past and adapt. Where are the "wise" people of New Orleans?

Posted by tadchem | November 20, 2009 10:47 AM
Jeremy:

Adding to Hank's comments:
The same applies to people who build in wildfire-prone areas of Southern California.

Posted by Jeremy | November 20, 2009 10:36 AM
Hank - S.Jersey:

Well, can't the same be said for those communities and people who build property right on or near the beach? Especially in areas that are prone to tropical storms, hurricanes and nor'easters?

I'm always baffled by those folks whose property is damaged and destroyed by these storms and act shocked that it happened. A TV promo for a certain weather outlet would show a clip of a woman surveying what was once her beach house after a hurricane. And she would say 'It's gone! It's all gone!!'. Well, yeah. What else would you expect to happen?

Insurers and the Fed Gov't should put limits on claims that these folks make after property is damaged/destroyed by these storms. We'll pay your claim, provide loans, etc. but you CANNOT rebuild in that location. Or if you do, any future claims will be severely limited or denied. Maybe that will grab their attention.

Posted by Hank - S.Jersey | November 20, 2009 6:58 AM
KAL:

WOW! Nice to read, finally.

Posted by KAL | November 20, 2009 6:39 AM
DennisA:

Here are a few extracts from JUNE 2003, CIVIL ENGINEERING MAGAZINE "THE CREEPING STORM"

Note the date: 2003

This was a disaster waiting to happen and nothing to do with a failure to maintain a drainage channel. The whole system was inadequate from the start. It still is.

http://www.nd.edu/~coast/reports_papers/Civil%20Engineering%20Magazine%20-%20June%202003.htm

The design of the original levees, which dates to the 1960s, was based on rudimentary storm modeling that, it is now realized, might underestimate the threat of a potential hurricane. Even if the modeling was adequate, however, the levees were designed to withstand only forces associated with a fast-moving hurricane that, according to the National Weather Service’s Saffir-Simpson scale, would be placed in category 3. If a lingering category 3 storm—or a stronger storm, say, category 4 or 5—were to hit the city, much of New Orleans could find itself under more than 20 ft (6 m) of water.

For the most part, New Orleans does not have places for people to go. The American Red Cross no longer provides emergency shelters in the city because its officials cannot guarantee the structural integrity of the locations. There simply are not enough buildings in the area that could withstand the forces of a category 4 or 5 storm.

During the past 10 years Marc Levitan, a wind and structural engineer and the director of LSU’s Hurricane Center, has been involved in hundreds of building investigations throughout New Orleans to determine if certain structures could be used as so-called refuges of last resort. “With the vast majority of them, if you really do an analysis, you really wouldn’t want to use them,” he says. “They all have some sort of deficiency.”

Most people would not wish to remain in the city if a category 4 or 5 storm were in prospect, but evacuating could be difficult. Experts say close to 400,000 people could be stranded in the city. There are an estimated 100,000 people without easy access to automobiles, and those who can drive may not be able to do so. During Hurricane Andrew, interstates throughout the South were brought to a standstill because simultaneous evacuations were taking place in several states. The only major planning improvement since then has been the decision to keep traffic away from the coast on both sides of evacuation routes.

Remember again, this was written in 2003, read it.

Posted by DennisA | November 20, 2009 4:06 AM
Zack Felter:

just like Pompeii with Mount Vesuvius...New Orleans will eventually be to the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Ponchartrain. Miami, Houston, New York, and Boston could all have the same fates.

Posted by Zack Felter | November 20, 2009 2:53 AM
Joe Bastardi:

I am going to try to cut a video on the free site tomorrow
illustrating what I am talking about with the 1947 hurricane
path.

I didnt want this to be a "rant" I wanted to defend the army
corps of engineers and put the whole thing in perspective.
That navigation channel has helped with commerce for what is a wonderful city. But people dont understand the fight with nature there. We actually have re-directed the Mississippi to flow through there as it would naturally enter the gulf about 150 miles west of there! But the cutting of all the cypress in building the channel
means the delta is not anchored properly also by trees that
can hold it. People should understand the miracle that is New Orleans, it is our "Venice" but they better also understand
that the 1947 hurricane path with a cat 3,4, or 5 intensity would
be a huge problem. It is hard to sit here and here the very group that did things to help New Orleans, is now getting hammered for a situation that was nature, not man, as the
prime driver. A big thank you to Jesse for letting me use his blog to post. I know it might seem strange coming from me given
what people believe I am about, but I am not anti-government, and I will call things as I see them. Assigning blame to man
for nature is in my opinion, folly.

Posted by Joe Bastardi | November 20, 2009 12:02 AM
justin:

Joe, your right on the money. You have a major port city built in what is essentially a bowl and and moderate hurricane hits at landfall what do you expect to happen. All things considered I think New Orleans is on borrowed time in coming years to eventually see a Gavelston situation.

Posted by justin | November 19, 2009 10:54 PM
Mike Snyder:

As usual..Joe has it nailed down perfectly!!..What about "personal responsibility"??...If you live in New Orleans, BELOW sea level, you're going to get flooded sooner or later...There's plenty of blame to go around, but to me its simple....Mother nature won that round!..Mike in Va beach!

Posted by Mike Snyder | November 19, 2009 7:19 PM
Aram:

As usual, Joe,
you have it down solid. No smoke & mirrors with you or Scientism factoids du jour.

Other than the basic meteorology I learned in AF Pilot Training back in '62, I'm just an amateur weather watcher but even I began seeing the handwriting on the wall with Katrina several days before she hit the coast. It was like watching kids playing on the railroad tracks with a train coming.

The blame game for Katrina's devastation is as full of holes as a kitchen sink strainer. The fact is the levy system and re-channeling of the Big Muddy was doomed to failure from its very inception. Back when the levy system was being proposed, many scientists and engineers did their best to warn (predict!) what the end result would be. They were right then and their facts are still valid.

New Orleans' days are numbered. Denying that incontrovertible truth, for whatever reason, may offer temporary feelings that all is well but it also worsens the eventual toll of losses of property and lives.
Better that the entire city were evacuated and razed. Destroy the levies, release the river to re-establish its own course and turn the delta back to its original natural state. Imagine the shrimp harvests! But fuggettaboutit; it ain't gonna happen.

Ignorance can be cured but stupidity goes right to the bone.

Posted by Aram | November 19, 2009 6:17 PM
Chris Erb:

Hello Joe B,

I just wanted to say that I completely agree
with you. This ruling is simply one of looking for a scapegoat! In my opinion from watching it
on TV, the Mayor of New Orleans and the Governor
of that State between them DID NOT KNOW WHAT TO
DO!! Also, as you stated, they live on the
Gulf of Mexico Coastline and the City itself
is below sea level, what did they really expect to happen??? If the Mayor has issued MANDITORY
EVACUATIONS and the Governor added in her support
at least 3 days inadvance of pending landfall
we would not have had so many lives lost.

Great Work Joe B.

Posted by Chris Erb | November 19, 2009 5:58 PM