HYPE: Models and JB on FL, Gulf Hurricanes

The morning run of the GFS continues its story about the current wave off of Africa developing into a Hurricane, moving it beneath the islands in the Caribbean, but then suddenly up into South Florida on August 20.

After that, it rakes the west coast of Florida and makes a second landfall on the Panhandle. AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO) says amusingly in his blog today "What we have to guard against is the temptation to swing with each GFS run, which have now on this storm hit every place from Galveston to Newfoundland and have a different idea on every run." But then seriously: "My take is the first threat is Florida around the 21st, and if it could be a major hurricane."Meteo Madness Man (PREMIUM | PRO) agrees, saying: "The model will be everywhere with the path of the storm. So far it has projected the storm from south Texas to Maine. My take, it looks like a Florida storm, but the question is, will it hit the east coast of Florida then start up the coast or will it cross Florida then hit the Gulf coast?"

The Canadian (CMC) model, meanwhile, insists on developing a storm in the Gulf before the GFS storm moves into the Caribbean, and at the last hour that we are allowed to show publicly, the Tropical Storm is in the Central Gulf.

Sources say it then strengthens and pushes southwest into Mexico on August 16th, while the eastern hurricane makes landfall on the Windward Islands on the next day.

The European Model (ECMWF) shows the main hurricane off the Southeast coast on August 22nd.