Hurricane Hype - Atlantic and Pacific
UPDATE: The GFS now has the hurricane hitting New York City, after three consistent model runs hitting the Texas Coast. See, this is why I don't do a HYPE entry every model run.
ORIGINAL POST:
"There is plenty of reason to worry for the Gulf states and Southeast this hurricane season, and I think some of the chickens are coming home to roost now."
-- AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO)
A quick update... The NHC [JessePedia] believes that Tropical Depression four could be declared today. (UPDATE: They did at 11 AM). Looking at this morning's satellite, she's still just a baby off the coast of Africa. NHC is already running their Model Spread [JessePedia] on it... and up to 4 days out, they are pretty consistent believe it or not. It would seem that we will have a storm moving through the lower Caribbean next week.
THIS MAP IS NOW ON PRO BEFORE STORM IS NAMED, ON FREE SITE AFTER (NEW FOR 2007!)
Meteo Madness Man (PREMIUM | PRO) has a great graphic today which shows the historical tracks of storms that have developed in that area. He believes that the storm is a Tropical Depression already.
Don't assume that this will be Tropical Storm "Dean" however... it could be "Erin"... some models are still talking about the system in the Caribbean becoming a tropical storm this week as well... and even if it doesn't, Joe says that it will cause tropical storm conditions on the Texas coast Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Meanwhile, over in the Eastern Pacific... Hurricane Flossie was an impressive Category 4 storm as of last night, with 140 mph sustained winds, still churning for a near miss of southern Hawaii and AccuWeather CIO Steve. She is looking very impressive on satellite:
LIVE HAWAII SAT | PREMIUM | PRO
We said in our More information is available in our Weather Headlines (PREMIUM | PRO) this morning:
If you look at a sea-surface temp map such as the one below from our Pro site (we have a zoomed out version for free), it looks like there's very little difference -- but even fractions of a degree can make a difference in the life of a hurricane. Still, I think she could be more powerful than we think when she approaches the islands.
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