Hurricane Bertha 1996 Vs. 2008, Perfect Storm?

WARNING: This blog entry was written on Sunday, July 6th, 2008 and does not represent current information on tihs storm. Please refer to this newer entry.

Here's a quick comparison of Bertha 1996 vs. Bertha 2008, which would seem to be taking the westward, more-near-land track that Joe Bastardi talked about late last week. Here are the current predicted tracks vs. 1996:

You can see the top red line is the current forecast, further north than the 1996 track (bottom red line), until the last minute when the tracks cross near landfall. The storms are about the same strength at this longitude as each other, but again Bertha 2008 is further north (see also our regular Forecast Eye Path map as of this time, and the full 1996 Bertha track).

Here's a closeup of the potential landfall area (again, the "A" track is the AccuWeather forecast):

I hesitate to even show the second closeup, as our forecast track will change. But the point at this time is that we are predicting a landfall somewhere in the Southeast, though probably from a different direction as Bertha 1996. People where Bertha hit in 1996 (My Beach [JessePedia]) and anywhere on the Southeast coast should be concerned about a potential hurricane hitting next weekend.

MY PICTURES FROM BERTHA 1996 | MY STORM CHASE REPORT

Hurricane forecasting is difficult and (according to the government) impossible. The NHC [JessePedia]said this morning "IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS." Below is the Model Spread [JessePedia] map through 96 hours (which is a more realistic look at the forecast):

Like I always tell people, hurricanes' future directions are determined by how they get caught in the cogs of the upper atmosphere steering flow (a bit like the game of Plinko, which WikiPedia does say is "nearly impossible to predict"). Bertha's destined track for the next couple days will be determined by two high pressures steering her westward.

More up-to-date information is available in our our Hurricane Center, Weather Headlines (PREMIUM | PRO) and Breaking Weather News Page (PREMIUM | PRO), and our official forecast Eye Path (as of this morning) is shown below (click here for current track).

There's plenty of time for the forecast to swing it off the coast -- or something even more bizarre, which AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi [BIO] (PRO USERS READ NOW | 30-DAY FREE TRIAL) noted last night in his blog, while keeping his mind open to the possibilities of weather, as we always does (emphasis below is mine):