Historical Severe Weather Outbreak?
After writing my initial article this morning on this week's potential for a severe weather outbreak, I talked to some other folks inside and outside of AccuWeather. What I am now wondering is, will this be a historical severe weather outbreak?
AccuWeather.com Professional's Joe Bastardi has been talking about the severe weather possibilities since Saturday, but it's not unusual for him to pinpoint a storm two weeks out. AccuWeather.com Premium's Henry Margusity (PREMIUM | PRO) , who's a severe weather expert here at AccuWeather, said in his column this morning: "I believe we will see over 500 reports of severe weather during the next 7-10 days." His map for the outbreak is shown below. He's already calling for a Moderate Risk.
An emergency manager contact of mine in the mid-Mississippi Valley said that the government's National Weather Service had been hyping the storm in an unprecedented manner, warning them as early as Saturday morning. They are already calling Slight risks for Day 2 and Day 3, and I already mentioned their 4-8 Day Outlook earlier.
The question is: Are they really seeing a storm of historical proportions, or is this just their first public attempt at a medium-range severe weather forecast with the first outbreak of the Spring (it is March, after all). I guess time will tell.
WeatherWhys (R): The area prone to tornadoes expands northward with time. This is due to several factors. Warm, moist air begins to build over the South in February and March and with cold air not too far to the north, these different air masses often clash. The jet stream is also positioned farther south this time of year, helping to elevate thunderstorms to severe levels. As spring heads toward summer, the warm air builds northward and the jet stream lifts to the north. This expands the area of tornadic activity farther north with time.
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