Hidden Points About Our Winter 09-10 Forecast
UPDATE: JB has also answered some of your questions in this video.
Our winter forecast is out and (as always) I want to list out what I think are the most important points which may get lost in the fray. These come from a meeting I attended this morning where Joe Bastardi and Henry Margusity gave out some talking points and discussed the winter forecast at length (we uploaded a sneak peek video from this meeting to our Facebook Page).
These are in no particular order...
1. We expect that the El Nino may increase slightly in November/December but should fade from then on out. As such, we will not experience the normal conditions associated with the El Nino. This is opposite to what NOAA has said recently; they will issue their forecast tomorrow.
2. The core of the winter will be in areas where people have "missed winter" (in other words have had little snow or cold) for the past couple of years.
3. We are less confident of our forecast inbetween the mid-Atlantic and northern New England. For example, we're sure Washington D.C. will have more snow this winter than they have during the last two winter seasons, and we're sure northern Maine will NOT get as much as they have previously but places in-between such as Boston and New York City, we can't be sure. This is because that forecast storm track shown above could vary greatly at and around the arrow.
4. Ice will not be as prevalent of a story this year because of the lack of a Southeast Ridge, although a normal mix of snow and ice (but above normal amount, which could prove challenging to local governments) should happen from Texas through Georgia.
5. We are not expecting a lot of severe storms to hit California like would normally happen during an El Nino winter.
6. We are concerned about the severe weather being bad in Florida during the winter because of that low storm track which will swing Gulf moisture and energy into the state.
7. Any region near the border of two shaded areas on the map above is in question and our forecast is less confident there.
8. This could be the year of the return of the Nor'easter (we're 100% sure due to #3). If it is, there could be major damage at the beaches the likes of which we haven't seen since 1962. The big cities could see most of their seasonal snowfall in a couple of storms.
9. Lake-effect should not be greater than normal this season due to less cold air moving from Canada directly over the lakes (however a disclaimer that we could see a couple whoppers early in the season because of the abnormally cold air moving over the warm lakes - this will not happen this weekend).
10. It is cold now in the Northeast but November will probably bring a mild spell. Don't let that worry you - winter will be back with a vengeance when the calendar says it's time.
11. Holidays? Hard to tell. Since winter will be mostly centered in its calendar confines this year, one assumes the population might make it through Thanksgiving OK but Christmas will be on the fence. Just because the Southeast will have above normal snowfall this year doesn't necessarily mean they will have a White Christmas; all the snow could end up coming after December.
12. One thing we are sure of is that it will be colder than normal in Texas and warmer than normal in North Dakota, when you average the entire winter out come April.
13. Do October snows in the Northeast (specifically here in State College, Pennsylvania, home of AccuWeather HQ [Google Map]) portend a bad winter? This is something I will examine in detail later today.
14. What about the storm this weekend? Read this news story for more info on where we think the snow will fall. If you want to see Fall Foliage, it may already be too late because the sun is disappearing behind clouds in the Northeast this morning, and those clouds will bring heavy rain and snow, and wind near-shore, which may rip most of the fall color from the trees by Sunday.
DISCLAIMER: We're talking about a seasonal forecast issued 6-9 months in advance here, so while we're painting with a broad brush here, we can't say for sure what could happen at any individual place and, come April, I'm sure we will have gotten some things wrong. But at least we're putting our own ideas out there and not towing the government line.
NOTE ABOUT COMMENTS: As always, if you're going to tell me 2009-2010 winter is "already over" or issue baseless complaints about the accuracy of our past forecasts (or anybody else's), don't bother. On the other hand, if you'd like to show me some data or maps and have a legitimate discussion, please do.
Comments (4):
Anne Hoffman:
I am counting on your forecast for a snowier, colder winter for DC. If it is going to be winter, how about a little snow to go with it already? You give me hope.
Posted by Anne Hoffman | November 9, 2009 8:52 PM
Corey Coughlan:
yes i really hope this forcast is correct because i live in dc and the last two winters were pathetic its seemed more like living in the sounth reather then in mid-atlantic winter precip i mean we got like two strorms with 3 or more inches of snow last year and they melted the next day so this forecast brings hope and joy to us snow lovers in the maryland dc virginia area because i was in 6th grade when the presidents day blizzard of 03 came and we were out of school for 2 weeks im not saying i want that but a couple 4-8 inch storms would b nice and also president obama last year was criticising the dc area about our lack of storms and how in chicago they get a ton of storms well lets prove him wrong this year!!!
Posted by Corey Coughlan | October 16, 2009 4:46 AM
Jim:
Sweet!!!!!!! Bring on Winter!!!
Got the shovels and firewood. :-)
Got to get the sleds and skis waxed.
Posted by Jim | October 14, 2009 12:45 PM
Mark Vogan:
Another GREAT forecast, Jesse.
Many years of experience and hard work goes into these forecasts and I fully back and support AccuWeather's winter forecast. Many may criticise but few know as much or more than Joe Bastardi or other meteorologists. I put out my forecast on my blog in early July and it was strikingly similar to this forecast!.
Great work AccuWeather and thanks Jesse for your always great blog posts..
Best Wishes, from Scotland.
Mark Vogan
Posted by Mark Vogan | October 14, 2009 11:39 AM
