Hi-Res Lake-Effect Snow Maps Thru Tue. Night

UPDATE FROM HENRY: Check out the snow cover on the Ohio Visible satellte loop, you can see the "tracks" of the lake-effect bands, just like the model maps show below. Note that the tracks are similar in size, but aren't always in the right place. Now that's verification! (Thanks Henry for pointing this out).

ORIGINAL POST:

The first widespread, major lake-effect (and upslope) event for the Midwest and East is in progress today. Stay tuned to my blog for lists of the amounts, which will be over a foot locally (and which will also include swaths of 6 inches). In fact, Highmarket, NY has already reported 14.5 inches! Keep an eye on my blog for a list of amounts.

Before I show our official prediction, hand drawn by our meteorologists below, I want to show you how incredible the Forecast Model [JessePedia] data that we have access to is this winter. The following maps are from last night's run of the high-resolution 4-KM WRF Model available on our Pro site. This model has the resolution to actually see individual bands of lake-effect snow and accumulate their amounts in the high elevations of the Appalachians, on state-level maps, instead of just guessing by dropping squares the size of West Virginia on a map of the Northeast). Here's what it's predicting through Tuesday Night around 7 PM:

Now, like I've said before, just because the WRF model has the ability to discern these small-scale systems, doesn't mean it's going to be right. It's still a forecast model and can misjudge where the various components in the atmosphere are. And it can over-estimate how much snow is on the ground - for example, the color white may mean only flurries, and total amounts could be less than it predicts. Still, it's neat. That said, here's our "official" prediction, hand-drawn by our meteorologists: