Gustav Roaring On Shore - Updates All Day
UPDATE: 3:30 PM: The levees are still holding, despite hours of overwash. Mayor Ray Nagin says "we're not out of the woods yet." Considering how close we may have come to calamity here with a Category 2 storm causing the levees to fill, New Orleans may have dodged the bullet this time - but next time it may not be so lucky.
UPDATE: 11:39 AM: Fox News reports that the Coast Guard has secured the loose barge that threatened the Industrial Canal Levee. If you have Comcast Digital Cable, do what I'm doing: Turn on (little-known) Channel 961, which displays all cable news channels at the same time. It's a great way to monitor Hurricane Gustav.
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UPDATE (11:18 AM): Geraldo on FoxNews just let loose a "GD" as he saw a person floating in the floodwaters in New Orleans, who was then rescued by emergency personnel. CNN says that the 9th Ward levee is "spurting" and police have left the area due to the danger.
UPDATE (11:07 AM): Fox News is reporting that the Army Corps says the levees should hold, but they are showing a graphic illustrating 4 breaches (confuse us much?). They also say that a drifting barge is posing a risk to the levees. MSNBC is showing impressive live video of waves crashing over the top of the levee at the Industrial Canal. The Army says the gauge is 11.4 feet, though the USGS gauge online has not been working since 8:30 am.
UPDATE (10:45 AM): CNN has a reporter not only on top of a hotel in New Orleans, but also in "a house flooded by 7 feet of water" in Grand Isle. As with the case of the last landfalling hurricane, I have to give them credit for getting the best footage and reports, but seriously guys, you may have gone too far.
I have uploaded landfall radar and satellite images, as well as more images from AccuWeather.com RadarPlus to this location.
This USGS gauge has gone up 8 feet with the storm surge, then suddenly fell 10 feet after the center of the storm passed. The salinity has also increased exponentially because of the ocean water pushing up the bay. Here's another gauge that showed a storm surge of about 8 feet.
UPDATE (10:15 AM): CNN is showing live footage from affiliate WWL of water at the top of the Industrial Canal in New Orleans. An Army Corp Engineer reports that the water there is at 11 feet but everything is OK so far. I am uploading new raw video of winds and damage in New Orleans to the video player at right. They are also reporting that Grand Isle, Louisiana is completely under water.
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UPDATE (9:10 AM): Gustav has been downgraded to a Category 2 storm. I doubt we'll see more significant wind gusts - the story now will turn to possible spin-off tornadoes and heavy rain for the next week.
Here's a comparison between Gustav's and Katrina's landfall satellite image - there's no comparison really, Katrina was much more organized and severe, with a large eye.
UPDATE (8:38 AM): Fox News reported a gust of 117 mph at "Empire", Louisiana (describing it as a "Category 3 Gust" which is technically impossible because Categories are defined by sustained winds). The reading was recorded at 4 AM at PSTL1, that Southwest Pass station I told you to watch last night. It also hit 28.82" pressure. The sustained wind at the time was 75 mph, barely a Category 1 hurricane.
ORIGINAL POST (8 AM):
Gustav is roaring onshore this morning. I will be updating this blog today with a constant flow of interesting information about the storm, along with graphical updates from AccuWeather.com RadarPlus (shown below - if you can't see the images, try here).
Some of those stories will come from the Media, for example, CNN has a reporter on the ROOF of a hotel in New Orleans. Seriously CNN? Sure, he may avoid debris on the streets but he (or his equipment) may be tossed off the roof. I've never even heard of a storm chaser doing that, and I think it sets a dangerous precedent.
Now, where do we stand at 8 AM? I can tell from the signature of the radar and satellite, which is a lot weaker than Katrina, and the lack of compelling footage from the media, that we are at that point in the hurricane where it is coming onshore, but overall people will be surprised by the lack of winds and damage from the storm (but maybe not the flooding), for three reasons:
1. This is typical of any hurricane. Winds on land rarely reach close to the Category designation. 2. The storm is coming on shore in a remote area southwest of New Orleans. 3. The storm was overhyped by the media.
That said, this is still a formidable hurricane as defined by The NHC [JessePedia], and we are seeing winds on the Coastal/Buoy stations indicative of this. Station GISL1 is winning right now, with gusts to 86 mph, and 42024 has reported waves of over 34 feet.
A storm surge of at least 9 feet has been reported by the media, and there's still a chance that the storm surge in New Orleans may cause the levees, especially on the West End, to break. If that happens, there will be a media frenzy that will appear to make my statements above invalid, but the frenzy will be because of flooding caused by weak levees, not because of a catastrophic hurricane. And again, as I said yesterday, the rainfall over the next week will be measured in feet, and that will be the big story.
